Cowboys vs. Bears Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

cowboys vs. bears betting prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: JEROME MIRON-USA TODAY SPORTS

Two of the NFC’s most disappointing teams will get together tonight at Soldier Field when the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears kick off Week 14 in the NFL. The NFC East-leading (somehow) Cowboys look to shake off a pair of uninspiring losses, including a 26-15 drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bills on Thanksgiving in a defeat that wasn’t as close as the score indicates, while the Bears look to secure a third straight win and keep alive their uphill climb for one of the conference’s two wild card berths. Can the Cowboys wipe away Jerry Jones’ tears and turn down the heat on Jason Garrett’s hot seat tonight, or will the Bears climb over the .500 mark for the first time since early October? Let’s get into it with our Cowboys vs. Bears betting prediction. 

How to Bet on Cowboys vs. Bears

Pennsylvania

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‘Tis the season of giving and the legal online sportsbooks are in a generous mood ahead of the Week 14 action.

FOX Bet PA has it all. New users can grab a $20 signup bonus and $100 deposit match right here , while all users can take advantage of FOX Bet’s money back specials, boosted parlays, and plenty of single game bet boosts.

DraftKings Sportsbook PA is offering users a $500 risk-free first bet which you can cash in on by hitting it here .

Indiana

DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana offers the same $500 risk-free bet, which can be had here .

Similarly, FanDuel Sportsbook IN is one of the state’s top legal betting options and also gives new users a $500 risk-free first bet .

New Jersey

DraftKings, FanDuel, and FOX Bet are each available in New Jersey, but we also recommend PointsBet. New users get a free $100 when they deposit $50. PointsBet is also offering a First TD Early Payout on tonight’s game. Place a pre-game money line bet, and if your team scores the game’s first touchdown, you win up to your first $50 staked.

Cowboys vs. Bears Odds

Here are the current Cowboys vs. Bears betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of Thursday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Cowboys        -3 (-103)     -148   O 43.5 (-110)
Bears        +3 (-120)      +130   U 43.5 (-110)

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Cowboys       -3 (-110)     -154   O 43.5 (+100)
Bears       +3 (-110)     +135   U 43.5 (-118)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Cowboys       -3 (-115)      -164   O 43.5 (-110)
Bears       +3 (-105)      +142   U 43.5 (-105)

Win Probability

FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection is most certainly NOT in agreement with oddsmakers ahead of this one.

ELO projects the Bears–not the Cowboys–as the favorite. ELO has the Bears as a 1.5-point favorite and calculates a 55% win probability for the home team. With Dallas currently favored by three points at the legal books, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly 4.5 points of betting value on Chicago. 

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -148 moneyline price on the Cowboys at DraftKings is 59.7%, which means the moneyline price is totally juiced up and way more expensive than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (+122 would be in line with a 45% win probability). Perhaps we’re seeing oddsmakers drive up Dallas’ price because, let’s face it, who really wants to bet on Mitch Trubisky tonight?

As for the Bears, the implied win probability of their +130 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 43.5%, meaning the ELO calculation suggests there is enormous value on taking the Bears to win outright.

Cowboys vs. Bears Injury Report

Behold:

Cowboys Injury Report Analysis

The Dallas defense has some injury concerns ahead of this game as safety Jeff Heath (shoulder), linebacker Leighton Vander Esch (neck) and defensive tackle Antwaun Woods (knee) are each out. Vander Esch, the most high-profile of the bunch, hasn’t played since Nov. 17. It will once again be Sean Lee seeing increased reps in his place. 

Bears Injury Report Analysis

Wide receiver Taylor Gabriel (concussion) and offensive tackle Bobby Massie (ankle) are again out for Chicago this week, as is tight end Ben Braunecker (concussion). Despite missing Gabriel, who has 29 catches for 353 yards and four touchdowns this season, and Massie a week ago, the Bears offense showed signs of life in the team’s late rally on the road at Detroit.

Defensively, the Bears will again be without linebacker Danny Trevathan (elbow) and cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) is also expected to miss the game, which is cause for concern against what is (sometimes) a prolific Dallas passing attack.

Cowboys vs. Bears Betting Specials

Over at FOX Bet, Cousin Sal’s Custom Sal’s Money Back Special continues to be one of the best promos we’ve seen. This custom game bet comes with a $25 money back guarantee if it doesn’t hit. This week’s special is on Ezekiel Elliott to record 100+ rushing yards with a touchdown and Dak Prescott to have more rushing yards than the Bears point total.

FOX Bet is also offering 12 unique bet boosts for tonight’s game, including:

  • Elliott 100+ rush yards and Cowboys win (+220)
  • Amari Cooper 8+ receptions and Cowboys win (+360)
  • Cowboys +3.5, Prescott 280+ pass yards, Elliott 75+ rush yards, Cowboys 3+ total TD (+400)
  • Bears +8.5, Trubisky 250+ pass yards, Robinson 60+ receiving yards, Bears 3+ TD (+475)

DraftKings Sportsbook has three different boosts available, including:

  • Elliott to Score a Touchdown and Cowboys to Win (+150)
  • Cooper to Score First Touchdown (+1080)
  • David Montgomery to Score and Bears to Win (+500)

Finally, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Close Loss Insurance in which you can get a $50 refund on losing pre-game money line bets if your team loses by six points or less. With a close game expected tonight, this one might be worth a look.

Cowboys vs. Bears Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Cowboys is a Good Bet

Road Favorites Have Been Good on Short Rest

Road favorites are 38-28-2 ATS in Thursday Games played in October or later.

The Bears Have Been an ATS Nightmare This Season

The Bears are 3-9 ATS overall, including 1-7 ATS over their last eight games.

The Bears Struggle to Cover On Thursday

The Bears are only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.

Dallas is Due, Right?

The Cowboys convert third downs on offense, they stop them on defense. They can run the football, they can throw the football, and they can get after the quarterback—and yet, they’re only 6-6. No team in football has under-performed against expectations quite like the Cowboys. If they’re going to get it together this season, it feels like it has to be now or never–right? Maybe?

Why Backing the Bears is a Good Bet

Dallas is Mediocre ATS as a Short Road Favorite

Dallas is 7-9-2 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less under Jason Garrett.

Dallas Also Struggles on Thursday

The Cowboys are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games, including their loss to the Bills last week.

The Bears Have Been a Good Underdog Bet with Trubisky at Quarterback

Nobody circles the wagons like…Mitch Trubisky? Okay, maybe not, but the Bears are 9-6-1 ATS as an underdog when Trubisky starts at quarterback and 4-1-1 ATS in his starts as a home underdog.

The Law of Averages

Teams that cover more than half of its games are only 83-105-10 ATS against teams that cover 25% of its games or less and they are 11-19-2 ATS in primetime.

Where’s the Action?

As of early Thursday afternoon, 75% of spread bets and 82% of the spread handle backs the Cowboys. As for the total, roughly 42% of bets and 46% of the money sides with the over.

Bets We Like

Custom Sal’s Money Back Guarantee (Elliott to record 100+ rush yards with a touchdown and Dak Prescott to gain more rush yards than Bears total points) at FOX Bet. Sign up right here .

Let’s start with the likelihood of Elliott eclipsing 100 yards and finding the end zone tonight. Over his last four contests, Elliott is averaging 17.3 carriers per game but only 62.3 yards per game, while failing to sniff 100 yards in any of those contests. He has scored only two touchdowns over his last five games with both coming in the Cowboys’ Week 11 win over the Lions. Still, Elliott has tallied seven rushing scores this season and figures to be heavily involved in the gameplan tonight after getting only 12 carries a week ago.

As for what he will be up against, Chicago has the league’s No. 7 overall rush defense (97.5 yards per game), but that is a bit misleading. The Bears front has allowed the opposition to eclipse 100 rushing yards in six of its last eight games. Opponents have tallied nine total rushing touchdowns during that span, which is why they’ve allowed the fourth most rushing scores this season.

Now, let’s check out the Prescott part of the equation.

With the game total set in the neighborhood of 43.5 points and the Cowboys installed as a modest three-point favorite, oddsmakers are essentially setting Chicago’s total at 20 points. Notably, the Bears have the league’s No. 27 scoring offense and have managed only 17.7 points per game. Prescott has eclipsed 20 yards rushing four times this season, including last week when he rushed for 25 yards against the Bills.

Yes, it’s a bit of a long shot play, but it comes with a money back guarantee, so there’s absolutely no reason to pass it up.

Elliott to Score a Touchdown and Cowboys to Win +150 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Get it here .

I like Elliott to score for the reasons mentioned above, but it’s also worth pointing out that his price to score tonight is set at -155. This prop allows bettors to eliminate the field goal point spread and grab the Cowboys to win outright paired with the likely proposition of him finding the end zone.

Cowboys vs. Bears Prediction

This is most certainly not my favorite game of the week. The Cowboys have done absolutely nothing this season that warrants any trust that they can go on the road and beat a half-decent team in a difficult environment. Any belief in the Cowboys must be rooted in a hypothetical that begins with words like “if” and “should.” For instance, if the Cowboys finally put it all together tonight, they should be able to cover with ease against a Bears team that has been susceptible to the run for nearly two months and very clearly lacks offensive potency. As you know, of course, what should happen in the NFL often does not happen.

I’m also not in love with the following realities:

  • The public is hammering Dallas.
  • Poor cover teams are good against good cover teams late in the season, particularly in primetime.
  • Trubisky has been a good cover quarterback as an underdog.

 

That being said, I’m going to ignore these inconvenient truths and roll with the Cowboys anyway because, I mean, they have to come through against a half-decent team eventually–right? Proceed with caution.

Cowboys (-3) over Bears

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