Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: ERIC HARTLINE-USA TODAY SPORTS

The NFC East is on the line Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field when the Cowboys and Eagles meet in a matchup of underachieving 7-7 squads. Dallas finally woke up a week ago when it snapped a three-game losing streak in a 44-21 blowout win over the Rams, while Carson Wentz performed another late-game magic act to keep the Eagles’ season alive in a 37-27 win over the Redskins at FedEx Field.

There’s plenty on the line in this meeting between two bitter NFC East rivals–and there will most certainly be no shortage of drama, either. The Eagles will attempt to vanquish the Cowboys for the first time in four meetings and set up a win-and-in Week 17 scenario at New York next Sunday, while Jason Garrett is likely coaching for his job–along with a second straight NFC East title.

Which team will get it done in this high stakes contest? Let’s get into it with our Eagles vs. Cowboys betting prediction and picks.

Note: Be sure to check our full rundown of Week 16 picks right here.

How to Bet on Eagles vs. Cowboys

Pennsylvania

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New Jersey

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Eagles vs. Cowboys Odds

[sportsbook filters=”teams:Philadelphia Eagles,books:DraftKings”]

The Cowboys opened as a 2.5-point favorite and the market quickly demanded the number surge to Cowboys -3 by midweek. It has since come back down to Cowboys -1.5, perhaps in part over concerns regarding Dak Prescott’s health. Here are the Eagles vs. Cowboys betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of Friday afternoon:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Cowboys        -1.5 (-110)      -121   O 46.5 (-110)
Eagles        +1.5 (-110)      +106   U 46.5 (-110)

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Cowboys       -2.5 (-110)     -125   O 46 (-110)
Eagles       +2.5 (-110)     +105   U 46  (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Cowboys       -1.5 (-110)      -116   O 46.5  (-105)
Eagles       +1.5 (-110)      +102   U  46.5 (-105)

Eagles and Cowboys Super Bowl Odds

If you think the winner of the NFC East will get the last laugh by surprising everybody with a Cinderella championship run, now might be the time to lock in your bets.  Here are both teams’ current Super Bowl odds:

  • Eagles: +4000
  • Cowboys: +2700

Note: If you’re thinking smaller and like the Eagles to simply win the NFC East, you can grab them with an odds boost (+175 boosted from +137) over at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Win Probability

Note: Calculations reflect Friday afternoon market prices.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection, the wrong team is favored in this football game.

ELO projects the Eagles–not the Cowboys–as the favorite. In fact, ELO has the Eagles as a 2.5-point favorite and calculates a 59% win probability for the home team. With Philadelphia currently a 1.5-point underdog, the ELO projection suggests there is four points of value on the Eagles. If you grabbed the Birds earlier in the week when they were a three-point underdog, then you scored even more value. Congrats.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the +106 moneyline price on the Eagles at DraftKings is 48.5%, which means the moneyline is significantly cheaper than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-144 would be in line with a 59% win probability). Of course, these numbers illustrate the extreme value of our exclusive DraftKings Sportsbook Eagles +300 moneyline odds offer (get it right here).

As for the Cowboys, the implied win probability of their -121 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 54.8%, meaning there is no value whatsoever on the underdog in relation to ELO probability.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Injury Report

Eagles Injury Report

The Eagles, as they have all season, are dealing with numerous significant injury issues.

Wide receiver Nelson Agholor, running back Jordan Howard, and right tackle Lane Johnson are each expected to miss yet another game. Defensive end Derek Barnett was upgraded to limited on Friday and has a chance to play.

Kamu Grugier-Hill, who returned last week following a concussion suffered against the Dolphins back in Week 13, injured his back in the win over the Redskins and was placed on injured reserve.

Cowboys Injury Report

The Cowboys’ injury report is lengthy, but the status of Dak Prescott’s throwing shoulder is the obvious headliner. Prescott will play, but questions loom over how he will deal with his reported AC joint sprain. Prescott has been limited in practice this week, but I wouldn’t put too much stock in the veteran quarterback’s lack of reps.

Left tackle Tyron Smith (eye) was limited on Thursday, but Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett said Smith’s vision is improving, so expect to see him (pun intended) out there. Tackle La’el Collins (knee) and guard Zack Martin (ankle) were also limited, but both are expected to play.

Sean Lee (pectoral/thigh) and defensive lineman Michael Bennett (foot/knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday, but were each limited participants on Thursday and will likely play.

Linebackers Joe Thomas (knee) and Leighton Vander Esch (neck) are likely out, so Lee’s availability is key.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet

It’s a Trap

Road favorites in division games that opened as a favorite of less than three points are only 10-20-2 ATS in December or later.

The Cowboys are 4-11-1 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less following a win under Jason Garrett, including 3-6-1 ATS on the road.

Home underdogs in division contests that cover less than 36% of its games playing an opponent that cover more than 50% of its games are 20-13-2 ATS in December or later. Such teams are also 12-2-1 ATS in Week 16 games.

The Eagles Finish Strong at Home

The Eagles are 8-2 straight up at home in the month of December under Doug Pederson.

History

No team has won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons since the Eagles did it in 2003 and 2004.

Home underdogs of three points or less that lost the previous head-to-head matchup by 25+ points are 6-14 ATS overall and 2-5 ATS in division contests (small sample size alert).

Home underdogs of three points or less in division games are 53-75-5 ATS in November or later and 40-52-2 ATS when losing the previous head-to-head matchup.

Home underdogs of exactly three points in division games are 53-75-5 ATS in November or later.

Dallas is More Talented

Forget the trends, Dallas is the more talented team in terms of available personnel. Obviously, the catch here is that they have rarely capitalized on that talent this season.

The Game Total

The under is 22-9 in games coached by Doug Pederson at Lincoln Financial Field, including 11-3 following a game in which the Eagles are coming off an over.

The under is 11-2 in Eagles home games against teams that made the playoffs the previous season. The only split to be wary of in this regard is that the under is only 5-6 in Eagles home division games under Pederson. It’s 17-3 in non-division games.

Where’s the Action?

The public just can’t quit the Cowboys.

As of Friday afternoon, 74% of spread bets and 71% of the spread handle backs Dallas. As for the total, only 38% of bets and  71% of the money sides with the under.

Bets We Like

Ezekiel Elliott to have over four receptions (-120 at FOX Bet)

Get ithere .

Elliott has been a nightmare for Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Not only is Dallas undefeated when Elliott plays against the Eagles (5-0), he averages 163 scrimmage yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry. Beyond that, Elliott has been targeted 36 times in those fives games, catching 31 total passes (an average of just over six per game).

While Elliott has only eclipsed four receptions in four games this season, one of those came back in the Cowboys’ Week 7 win over the Eagles in which he caught six of seven targets. Moreover, Elliott has been targeted a total of 19 times over the last three weeks and could see plenty of action on Sunday–particularly if Dak Prescott is unable to take deep shots with his sore shoulder.

Carson Wentz to complete more than 25 passes (-118 at FOX Bet)

The Eagles can and should rely on Miles Sanders this Sunday, but some of that reliance will likely occur via the passing game. The Eagles have leaned heavily in recent weeks on a high-volume passing game that funnels through the team’s tight ends and running backs, and there’s no reason to think things will be much different this week.

Wentz has completed at least 26 passes in five of his last six games, which includes four straight games of at least 28 completions. With Dallas a bit banged up at the linebacker position, I expect Wentz to complete several high-percentage passes to eclipse this total.

Miles Sanders to Score a Touchdown (-121 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sanders is coming off of a breakout game against Washington, rushing for 122 yards on 19 carries, adding another 50 yards receiving on six catches. This play right here was especially eye-popping:

As the regular season nears its end, Sanders is trending towards stud territory.

Over the last four weeks, Sanders has tallied 81 touches for 432 yards from scrimmage and has scored three of his five total touchdowns. He’s the Eagles’ best overall playmaker, and I expect that he will be given plenty of opportunities to make big plays on Sunday.

Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction

The Cowboys sputtered in spectacular fashion throughout losses to the Patriots, Bills, and Bears, but put it together in their 44-21 blowout win over the Rams last week. Apparently, that’s enough for public bettors who are hammering Dallas and willing to ignore a recent and significant sample of largely unimpressive football. It’s true that the Cowboys are the superior team in terms of personnel, but their talent has simply not translated to consistent play, let alone wins.

As for the Eagles, this game is being billed as the biggest of Carson Wentz’s young career. I don’t know if that’s true, but it’s certainly a monster game, one in which the Eagles desperately need their franchise quarterback to play his ass off. I’ve been often critical of Wentz this season, but I think he’s going to ride the momentum of his spectacular recent late-game performances and play well in this game.

The Eagles are a deeply flawed football team, but they are at home, have some momentum, and have excelled in pressure situations under Pederson.  On the other hand, I have absolutely no reason to trust the Cowboys and lame-duck head coach Jason Garrett in this spot.

In terms of the total, trend data suggests that betting the under in late-season division contests is typically the right play. Given the Eagles will likely rely on Sanders and short passing game, along with some minor questions about Prescott’s throwing shoulder, I’m willing to take a shot on the under.

Note: Of course, if you like the Eagles to win and want to maximize your potential profit, you can do it by grabbing DraftKings Sportsbook’s Eagles +300 odds boost right here.

Prediction: Eagles +1.5 and UNDER 46.5 points

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