The Kansas City Chiefs. The San Francisco 49ers. The matchup is set, we know the Super Bowl 54 odds, and, of course the prop bets are also set. While much will be made in the coming days about the Chiefs’ 50-year Super Bowl absence, Andy Reid’s 21-year wait, and the 49ers quest for a sixth Lombardi Trophy, my attention is occupied by far more important matters.
Matters such as the Super Bowl coin toss. Is there a more electric four seconds in sports? I think not.
Of course, some bettors enjoy the prolonged agony of watching their wagers unfold over four hours, but I, on the other hand, like my action quick. Gather around, gentlemen, flip the coin, and let’s cash a bet–all before the football takes its opening flight against the backdrop of thousands of flashing lights. Is there anything better than that?
All right, perhaps I’m playing this up a bit, but I do enjoy the coin toss and always make it part of my Super Bowl prop bet picks.
If things don’t go my way, there is plenty of time to chase the loss. And if it does? Perfect. More time to pump my money back into the fray. Give me more action. Continuous action. All of the action.
In fact, PointsBet is offering New Jersey bettors a $25 coin toss in-play bonus. Place a wager on the coin toss market, and if it loses, get up to $25 for in-play Super Bowl bets.
You can sign up for PointsBet here.
You may say this is next level degenerate stuff, and I would agree, but I’m so here for it, and you should be, too. Be the only person in the room who jumps around like a total psychopath when that coin lands. Be a leader.
That is how to Super Bowl, and that is why I recently spent hours–multiple hours–researching all of the major trends and information related to the outcome of a distinguished coin tosser standing at midfield and flipping a commemorative hunk of earth metal into the air. I did this all in an effort to dominate this year’s Super Bowl coin toss.
Super Bowl Coin Toss History
The coin toss is the ultimate 50/50 proposition, so it came as little surprise when I learned that over 53 years the splits have been relatively even. Tails has hit in 28 of 53 Super Bowls, a rate of nearly 52.8% percent.
A deeper dive into the numbers shows both lengthy runs and some staggered outcomes over the years, but can any of that information be used to help make a bet on the Super Bowl 54 coin toss? Maybe. Or you can just roll with what you used to call during recess.
The 49ers will play in their seventh Super Bowl and have won the toss in four of their six appearances. As it turns out, winning the toss has been a good omen for San Francisco as it is a perfect 4-0 when winning the coin toss. The 49ers are 1-1 when losing the flip.
The Chiefs Super Bowl coin toss history isn’t quite as long or storied-they have lost the coin toss in each of their two Super Bowl appearances.
One other note–San Francisco is undefeated in the Super Bowl when tails wins, going 3-0 in those contests. They are 2-1 when heads wins. Kansas City lost with heads and won with tails.
If you’re looking to select who wins the toss based purely on conference–an extremely bold strategy–then know that the NFC won it 14 straight seasons from 1998-2011, helping give the conference an all-time .679 Super Bowl coin toss winning percentage.
Super Bowl Coin Toss Odds
Note: All coin toss odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Coin toss result:
- Heads (-103)
- Tails (-103)
Team to win the toss:
- Chiefs (-103)
- 49ers (-103)
Player to correctly call the coin toss:
- Yes (-103)
- No (-103)
You can also wager either team to win both the game and coin toss:
- Chiefs: Yes (+255)/No (-335)
- 49ers: Yes (+310)/No (-420)
I’ll elaborate on this last prop in a just a bit.
Heads or Tails?
Tails is on a solid 5-1 run dating back to Super Bowl 48, including a win last year in Super Bowl 53. That’s worth mentioning because the toss has been streaky in recent seasons. The last time the coin toss alternated results over a four-year stretch was between Super Bowl 40 and 43 when it went tails, heads, tails, heads.
But wait, there’s more.
The greatest streak of tails is four consecutive Super Bowls (three times), while there has been one five-game heads streak from Super Bowl XLIII to Super Bowl XLVII.
Does Winning The Toss Impact The Game Result?
Not recently. The last five coin toss winners have gone on to lose the game. The last team to win both the toss and the game is Seattle in Super Bowl XLVIII, which is relevant because there has never been a streak greater than the current five-year run of a team winning the toss and losing the game. Something has to give. Maybe.
Historically speaking, the winner of the coin toss has only gone on to win the game in 24 of 53 Super Bowls, a 45.3% rate, so there doesn’t appear to be a direct correlation between winning the toss and winning the game. It’s more or less…a coin flip.
Coin Toss Prediction
Listen, I can’t argue that tails has been the better Super Bowl play, nor can I argue that it has been especially hot lately, winning five of the last six flips. That said, I believe that the NFL is all about parity, and I expect the chaos to return this year–chaos in the form of HEADS. Remember, the coin toss winner hasn’t won the game in five years, which is longest streak in Super Bowl history. I think that run is also about to come to an end.
Coin Toss Prediction: Give me heads (-103) and a smaller play on the Chiefs to win the toss and game (+255).