The Eagles are 1-4-1. They blew a 17-point lead to Football Team in Week 1. They played to a tie with the Bengals in Week 3.

Suddenly, Eagles fans are applauding moral victories three years removed from a Super Bowl win.

I mean, what the hell is going on here?

Still, despite the unpleasant reality of the Eagles’ current predicament, they enter tonight’s game with the 1-5 Giants as a 4.5-point favorite. They are a 4.5-point favorite because, remarkably, the Giants have been an even shittier team.

Get the Eagles at exclusive +300 moneyline odds to beat the Giants at DraftKings Sportsbook by clicking right here.

This is hard to believe, I know, but it is true. The Giants are awful–awful, awful–and I’ve grabbed some rankings through six weeks that I think encapsulate the true essence of this football team:

  • -8.5 average scoring margin (29th)
  • 16.8 points per game (31st)
  • 87.8 rushing yards per game (30th)
  • 187.5 passing yards per game (30th)
  • 1.7 turnovers per game (27th)
  • 25.3 points per game allowed (16th)

What we basically have here is a team that can’t throw the ball, can’t run the ball, can’t score, and turns it over a ton. This is an offense that is so absolutely and wholly dreadful that it taxes a competent yet unspectacular defense.

And, yet, we’re left with this question–do you really want to lay 4.5 points at PA online sportsbooks with an injury-depleted Eagles team that is only 2-4 against the spread this season?

Didn’t think so.

I came into this exercise thinking that the Giants were probably the right side tonight. Two bad teams, short week, gotta take the points. And, truthfully, I’d love to pump you up with a ton of false bravado about why one side is the right side in this one, but there are pretty compelling arguments that support both teams. That’s why I’m going with a more measured approach.

Click here to get FOX Bet and grab 50-1 odds on the Eagles in PA right here. Click here to get it in NJ.

Why The Giants Can Win

Listen, the Giants beat the Washington Football Team last week, and the Eagles couldn’t manage that herculean achievement.

Yeah, the Eagles are in line to get back Lane Johnson and DeSean Jackson, but will those guys be effective? Will they even make it through a quarter? Feels like a coin flip deal.

Add those question marks to the reality that the Eagles will be without a handful of other projected offensive starters, including running back Miles Sanders. It’s not all that hard to imagine how a high-effort Giants defense can keep an erratic Carson Wentz and his no-name cast of weapons in check.

After all, despite the Giants -51 point differential through six games, four of those games have been decided by one score. It’s not exactly like this team is getting its doors blown off week in and week out. At the very least, plenty of Eagles fans have spent most of the past week applauding “almosts” against Pittsburgh and Baltimore, so this has to count for something.

Giants Trends

When it comes to big-picture betting trends, consider the following data:

  • Road dogs of 3-4.5 points that won six or less games the previous season are 161-119-15 ATS, and they’re 3-1 ATS this season. The Giants fit the profile.
  • Such teams are also 66-45-6 ATS in division games.
  • Road underdogs of 3.5-4.5 points are 22-12 ATS in October. They’re 13-6 ATS coming off of a win and a perfect 6-0 ATS off a win and an opponent loss.
  • The Eagles are just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite following a loss and 0-7 ATS as a favorite of more than four points.

Why the Eagles Can Win and Cover

This is pretty simple. As I stated above, the Giants suck. The Eagles are bad, too, but should still have enough to get past this team for an eighth straight game.

I won’t go as far as others to suggest Wentz was good last week. I typically reserve that designation for quarterbacks who lead their teams to at least, you know, points in the first half. But I will acknowledge that he received no help early and was impressive late in the game, and I’ll readily acknowledge he’s a far superior player to Daniel Jones (while ignoring that he actually trails Jones in QBR).

There has to be some reasonable expectation that Wentz, with the return of Jackson, can carry some of the momentum created last week into this game.

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Eagles Trends

History is on the Eagles’ side:

  • The Eagles are 15-3 straight up in division games as a favorite under Doug Pederson. They’re also 8-1 as home favorites in division games. That’s pretty damn good.
  • Pederson is 7-1 as a head coach against the Giants.
  • The Eagles have performed well at Lincoln Financial Field at home under Pederson in October. Including last week’s cover, the Eagles are now 6-2 ATS at home during the month.
  • Division home favorites off of a loss are 17-11 ATS in Thursday games. They’re 5-0 ATS on a two game losing streak. Oh, and they’re 9-1 ATS when coming off of two or more losses.

Eagles vs. Giants Prediction

Got all of that? Good.

Listen, betting on the Eagles isn’t a palatable option. Betting on the Giants, though, is like picking up a turd and letting swish around your mouth until 11:25 p.m. tonight. Whatever your job is, I imagine you probably have to deal with a ton of aggravation, stress, and just general nonsense. You earn your money. Betting that hard-earned money on the Giants, on the road, against a team they never beat, just doesn’t seem like the way to go here.

If I had to pick against the spread, I would reluctantly lay the points and take the Eagles, but here’s the good news. I don’t have to do that. This is 2020 and legal sportsbooks give us plenty of options, including the moneyline and/or buying points.

I’m eliminating getting beat on a 3-4 point win and grabbing the Eagles -2.5 (-157) with DraftKings Sportsbook. Maybe that’s not the bravado or the “5 star intergalactic lock of the century” you were looking for, but in this case, I happen to think it’s the smart play.

I’m taking the team that should win, a team that I also don’t trust to cover 4.5 points, to win the game by a more modest total.

Of course, if you’re new to DraftKings Sportsbook, you can get our exclusive Eagles +300 moneyline offer here.

That’s your best bet.