Sixers vs. Heat Betting Preview (January 12, 2021)

sixers heat betting preview
PHOTO CREDIT: DALE ZANINE-USA TODAY SPORTS

On Tuesday night, the Sixers and Heat meet for the first of two games between the two teams this week. Let’s get into our Sixers-Heat betting preview, including odds, boosts, and picks.

 

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Preview

As COVID-19 cases around the league have led to calls for the NBA to shut down the season for a couple of weeks, the Sixers will likely take the court shorthanded for a third consecutive game.

Their opponents in this one will also be down a large number of key contributors. In fact, twelve players total will miss this contest due to health protocols including:

Heat

  • Jimmy Butler
  • Avery Bradley
  • Udonis Haslem
  • Kendrick Nunn
  • Bam Adebayo
  • Maurice Harkless
  • KZ Okpala
  • Goran Dragic

Meyers Leonard is listed as questionable with a left shoulder strain.

Sixers

  • Matisse Thybulle
  • Vincent Poirier
  • Shake Milton
  • Tobias Harris
  • Terrance Ferguson

Additonally, Seth Curry is out due to a positive COVID-19 test, while Furkan Korkmaz is out due to injury. Ben Simmons’ status is listed as probable.

On paper, regardless of Simmons’ status, Philadelphia should have a talent edge.

 

Sixers vs. Heat Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Heat at DraftKings Sportsbook:

  • Spread: Sixers -8, Heat +8
  • Moneyline: Sixers -335, Heat +270
  • Total: 209.5

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

 

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

FiveThirtyEight gives the Sixers an 83% chance of winning with a -10 point line. Philadelphia’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is 70%.

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Sixers to Win and Under 209.5 Points (+148, DraftKings)

Given the lengthy list of players out primarily due to health and safety protocols, there has been a loud contingent on social media calling for the game to be postponed. The NBA has maintained that the game will be played as scheduled, which should bode well for the Sixers.

With Joel Embiid in the lineup and Ben Simmons listed as probable, there’s an inherent fear that their defensive prowess could lead to the under hitting. It’s fair to wonder where the Heat’s scoring will come from outside of second year guard Tyler Herro. Miami will lean on Duncan Robinson, Precious Achiuwa, Kelly Olynyk, and Andre Iguodala to play the lion’s share in this one.

209.5 points isn’t a huge number to get to, but Miami’s options are so limited that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them barely crack 90 points. The only conceivable way the over hits comfortably is if the game turns into a rout by the third quarter and Philadelphia empties the back end of their bench while Tyler Herro rains down threes.

It’s worth noting that in the Sixers’ first game with limited subs, Denver pulled away in the second half and the game totaled 218 points, but their second shorthanded game against Atlanta on Monday night saw them fail to crack 100 points, while the total points came in at a meager 206.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Joel Embiid Over 26.5 Points (-120, BetMGM)

Joel Embiid is 15th in the NBA in scoring at just under 25 points per game and has a great track record of scoring against Miami. In four games against the Heat a season ago, Embiid averaged 27.3 points and 13.3 rebounds per game, indicating an ability to get inside early and often. He also averaged 1.8 made threes on 3.5 attempts per game across those contests. Without Bam Adebayo in the lineup, Embiid will likely see a combination of Kelly Olynyk and Precious Achiuwa. This could be a huge game for Embiid en route to a blowout win.

50-1 Odds on Joel Embiid to Score a Point (+5000, FOX Bet)

FOX Bet is running an incredible exclusive promo for new users who sign up for their sportsbook. Turning $1 into $50 has never been easier. FOX Bet has made it unbelievably easy to take advantage of. New users must sign up for FOX Bet and deposit at least $10. Then, navigate to Thursday’s Sixers v. Heat game or click on the promo on top of the app. Place your first wager is on Embiid to score at 50-1 odds and if the Sixers franchise center scores at least one point, the bet will pay out $50 for a $1 wager.

Note: The promo is for Thursday’s game against the Heat, not tonight’s. The new user promo is live now, so you can get in on the action today.

 

Sixers vs. Heat Prediction

Pick: Just like we believed it would be difficult for the Sixers to overcome the odds with a drastically-shortened bench against the Nuggets and Hawks, it seems unlikely Miami will be able to pull this one out against the Sixers. Philadelphia’s lone loss in their past 21 games at Wells Fargo Center came against Denver. They’ll be motivated to avenge that blemish. Take the Sixers to Win and Under 209.5 points.

FOX Bet has an awesome offer ahead of the NFL Divisional Playoffs. Click here to get a +500 odds on the Packers or Saints to score at least once in PA. Get in on the action in NJ right here .

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