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Flyers vs. Islanders Betting Pick (March 20, 2021)

By Russ Joy

Published: Mar 20th, 2021 · 1:08 PM EDT

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On Saturday night, the Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road taking on the New York Islanders at Nassau Coliseum for the second meeting of a three-game set.

Let’s get into our Flyers-Islanders betting pick with player prop predictions, odds and analysis for this March 20, 2021 matchup.

Click here to get crazy 64-1 March Madness odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Flyers vs. Islanders Betting Pick (March 18, 2021)

The Flyers entered Thursday night’s contest against the New York Islanders coming off one of their most embarrassing losses in franchise history, a 9-0 defeat at the hands of the New York Rangers. It was imperative for the team to right the ship against a New York Islanders squad that had lost both of the prior matches to the Orange & Black this season. They did just that in convincing fashion early on. 

Oskar Lindblom got the scoring started with just 2:26 gone in the second period, followed by captain Claude Giroux just after the halfway mark of the period. Four minutes later, Jakub Voracek found the back of the net to put the Flyers up 3-0.

The Islanders got back into the game in the third period, starting with a Michael Dal Colle tally with just under eight minutes gone in the game’s final frame. Six minutes later, Sebastian Aho fired a near-post shot high on Carter Hart’s glove side to bring the Isles to within one goal. 34 seconds later, Oliver Wahlstrom tied the game at three goals apiece.

The Flyers were on the edge of collapse and could have allowed New York’s momentum to crush them, but Oskar Lindblom ripped a shot from the slot with 2:33 remaining to give Philadelphia a 4-3 victory.

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The win lifted the Flyers to 15-10-3 on the season with three games in hand over the Islanders, who find themselves in second place in the East Division with 42 points. Philadelphia enters play with 33 points in 28 games, which is good for fifth place in the division, just three points behind the Boston Bruins.

New York is 9-2-0 in their last 11 games, but both of those losses have come in consecutive games. While they found their scoring touch late in Thursday night’s game, the loss of captain Anders Lee to a torn ACL still looms large over this team. They’ll need to bounce back in a big way in tonight’s contest to prevent dropping at least two of the three games in this mini series.

 

Flyers vs. Islanders Odds

Here’s the line for the Flyers and Islanders at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

• Spread: Flyers +1.5 (-225), Islanders -1.5 (+180)
• Moneyline: Flyers +120, Islanders -141
• Over/Under: O 5.5 -103, U 5.5 -120

[sb-standard teams=”Philadelphia Flyers” books=”DraftKings”] [metabet_core_odds_compare query=”flyers” size=”300×250″ site_id=”crossingbroad”]

 

Bets We Like With a Flyers Win

Flyers Win and Over 5.5 Goals (+340, DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Flyers needed a win in a big way on Thursday night, and got one despite blowing a 3-0 lead late in the third period. Oskar Lindblom’s late tally saved the day and once again delivered the Flyers a win over the team that eliminated them in Game 7 of last season’s playoffs. That means that Philadelphia improved to 3-0-0 on the season against the team that appeared to solve their system and end their 2019-20 season. One additional positive trend for Philadelphia ahead of this contest is that in four of the Flyers’ last five games the underdog has come out victorious.

Most sportsbooks have established the total goals market in this game at 5.5, and while we’ve encouraged hedging down to 4.5 goals recently, there’s been no indication that the total will fall below 5.5 goals. In fact, the Flyers have seen the total goals go over 5.5 in nine of their last ten games:

• 3/2/21 @ PIT: 5-2
• 3/4/21 @ PIT: 4-3
• 3/6/21 @ PIT: 4-3
• 3/7/21 v. WSH: 3-1
• 3/9/21 v. BUF: 5-4 (SO)
• 3/11/21 v. WSH: 5-3
• 3/13/21 v. WSH: 5-4
• 3/15/21 @ NYR: 5-4 (OT)
• 3/16/21 @ NYR: 9-0
• 3/18/21 @NYI: 4-3

The final score has gone over 6.5 goals in each of Philadelphia’s last six games, so if you’re feeling bullish on a higher-scoring affair, you can get in on the Flyers to win and over 6.5 goals at +460 odds with DraftKings Sportsbook. If you believe the Flyers will win their fourth game against the Isles in four tries this season, parlay the moneyline with at least over 5.5 goals.

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Bets We Like With an Islanders Win

Money Puck gives the Islanders a 61.6% chance of winning this game. Meanwhile, New York’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is a bit lower at 56%.

Islanders Win and Over 6.5 Goals (+310, BetMGM)

The oddsmakers and projection model are in agreement regarding the outcome of tonight’s matchup, with the projection model’s 61.6% chance of an Islanders win standing out as relatively definitive by their standards.

After dropping the first two matchups between these teams earlier this season by scores of 3-2(OT) and 4-3(OT), the Islanders needed to assert their dominance on home ice. They looked dead in the water in the second period of Thursday night’s contest, falling behind 3-0 with each of those goals being scored in the middle frame. The Isles refocused, bore down, and netted three goals to tie the game late in the third period before Oskar Lindblom’s decisive goal with under three minutes remaining in regulation.

If the Islanders are able to capture their their period magic in tonight’s game and play more like the team that had gone 9-0-0 prior to this two-game skid, they should be able to pull this game out. The over 6.5 goals is merely a way to get even better value, and although New York hasn’t lit the lamp to an extreme degree, the Flyers’ goaltending and defending situation is so tenuous that the over has hit in each of their last six games. If you like New York to win in this one, parlay the moneyline with over 6.5 goals as a repeat of the 4-3 scoreline from a game ago is totally in play again in this one.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Over 1.5 Goals in Period 2 (-150, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Bettors looking for a solid play in this game independent of outcome should look no further than the second period over/under. The middle frame of the last eight Flyers games has seen more than one goal scored in each contest.

Philadelphia scored three goals in Thursday’s second period after getting shut out in Wednesday night’s game against the Rangers. Prior to that, the Flyers and their opponents combined for at least two second period goals in 11 of 12 games:

• 3/15/21 @ NYR: 4 goals
• 3/13/21 v. WSH: 4 goals
• 3/11/21 v. WSH: 2 goals
• 3/9/21 v. BUF: 3 goals
• 3/7/21 v. WSH: 2 goals
• 3/6/21 @ PIT: 3 goals
• 3/4/21 @ PIT: 1 goal
• 3/2/21 @PIT: 4 goals
• 2/28/21 @ BUF: 3 goals
• 2/27/21 @ BUF: 2 goals
• 2/24/21 v. NYR: 3 goals
• 2/21/21 @ BOS: 4 goals

There’s excellent value in this one as long as Philadelphia’s goaltending and defending situation follows its current trajectory.

 

Over 5.5 Goals (+100, BetMGM)

For all of the reasons listed above, there might be no easier way to double your money than betting over 5.5 goals in a Flyers game for the foreseeable future. The total goals in Flyers games have gone over 5.5 goals in nine of their last ten games and in two of three matchups with the Islanders this season.

 

Jakub Voracek to Record Over 0.5 Point (+100, FanDuel Sportsbook)

Jakub Voracek has had quite the season for the Flyers thus far. He’s been a key contributor as of late, recording at least one point in six of his last nine games, including two goals and seven assists, a ridiculous 1.5 points-per-game average over that span. In three games against the Islanders this season, Voracek has scored a goal in two of the contests.

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Flyers vs. Islanders Prediction

Pick: The oddsmakers and projection model favor the Islanders to bounce back in this one and skate away with the win. However, it’s fair to wonder if New York’s two-game losing streak is indicative of what’s to come in a post-Anders Lee season. We expect a high-scoring affair with the Flyers getting the win. Take the Flyers and Over 5.5 Goals. Also get in on the over 5.5 goals and over 1.5 2nd period goals markets.