Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds, Player Prop Pick (April 17, 2021)

The Phillies snapped a three-game skid last after capitalizing on the Cardinals’ comedy of errors and now look to ensure a series victory over St. Louis on Saturday afternoon. The Phillies will send Matt Moore (0-0, 7.56 ERA) to the mound against Kwang Hyun Kim, who is making his first start of the season.

Let’s get into the second game of the three-game set between the Cardinals vs. Phillies with a look the odds, betting prediction and player prop picks.

Cardinals vs. Phillies Odds

Here is a look at the Saturday afternoon’s Cardinals vs. Phillies odds, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:

The Phillies’ bats finally woke up last night, piling up an efficient nine runs on nine hits, with all but one starter scoring a run.

Now, they will see left-handed starter, Kwang-Hyun Kim, who they have yet to face.

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In the three games against left-handed pitchers who the Phillies faced for the first time this year, this lineup has piled up 18 runs. Kim has lasted 5.1 innings or less in each of his final three starts last season and only topped six innings once in his eight career starts, so we are likely to see a considerable amount of a Cardinals’ bullpen today that has posted just a 4.82 ERA on the road thus far this season.

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After a loss this season, Cardinals games have averaged 10.83 total runs and on the road they have averaged 10.57 total runs per game, producing four “over” results to just two “under” in this spot. Combined, the Phils and Cards have played just 10 of their 26 total games under the total (38.5%).

Cardinals vs. Phillies Prediction

The Phils send LHP Matt Moore to the hill and his two career starts against the Cardinals have produced 10 and 11 total runs. His two starts this season have averaged 10.5 total runs per game. Going back further, each of Moore’s last 10 starts have reached at least seven total runs with seven of those outings producing double digit runs.

Today, he faces a Cardinals’ lineup that is loaded with powerful right-handed bats throughout the middle of the order, including Nolan Arenado, who has dominated Moore in his career (9-for-20 with three homers).

Looking at some trends, the Cardinals have played four of their last five games over with totals set between 7 and 8.5 runs, while the Phillies have played five of their last six Over in that role.

Notably, with the Phillies having pushed nine across last night, we find that St. Louis has played just four games under the total over their last 21 games after an opponent scores five or more runs in its previous game. Philadelphia has played five of its last six games over after scoring at least five runs.

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The Phillies opened and still currently sit as small underdogs in this game. If that stays the case, it’s good to know they have played each of their last six games as dogs over the posted number.

With the Cardinals having plated just two runs in last night’s game, we should note that Philly has played 10 of their last 14 Over after allowing two or less in their previous game and eight of their last 11 games over against an opponent who scored two or less.

Game Pick

Look for the Phillies to cash a sixth straight over at home.

Player Prop Pick

Nolan Arenado Over 1.5 Total Bases (BetMGM +100)

Arenado will be facing a lefty Matt Moore today. Arenado is 3-for-8 (.375) in limited time against left-handed pitching this season, but he has dominated it throughout his career. As a .293 overall lifetime hitter, Arenado has hit .320 against lefties in his career with a .994 OPS, significantly higher than his overall .890 OPS.

He has also dominated Moore in their meetings, hitting .450 (9-for-20) against him. Of those nine hits, he has five doubles and a homer, giving Arenado a 1.350 OPS.

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Arenado is also off to a red hot start this season with his new team. He has 15 hits through 13 games and a stellar .875 OPS aided by three doubles and three homers. On top of that, Arenado has four multi-hit games already this year, making it eight of 13 games with at least two total bases (61.5%).

Arenado had hit safely in all but one game this season before last night’s 0-for-4. After his only other hitless game this season, he bounced back with a two-hit performance.

Any extra base hit today wins this bet straight away, but Arenado has also proven the ability to get multiple hits and win this one for us that way if needed. Against a lefty he has absolutely owned in his career, expect the Cardinals star to improve his .909 career daytime OPS and .326 career batting average against finesse pitchers today to get us this win.