The Sixers Are a Tremendous Betting Value Right Now
The ‘OFFS are here, baby (baby!?), and it’s time to take you on a rollicking two-month romp to the promised land.
Or an expected second round exit.
Either way, maestro comes armed with stats and a newfound ability to wager large sums of money.
Perhaps you’ll remember (you won’t) two years ago when I pointed out a huge divergence – a delta, they say – between the Kyle Lowry Toronto Raptors’ chances and their betting odds against the Warriors. In short, the Warriors were a huge betting favorite, but BIG DATA put the series at essentially a coin flip, meaning there was huge betting value on the Raptors.
Well, it’s happening again.
Take a look at how favorably Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight views the Sixers’ prospects using their RAPTORS (unrelated) system:
Now, to the odds board!
Depending on where you look, the Sixers have the fifth-best odds to win it all, and can be had as high at +800 at FanDuel Sportsbook— an only 11% implied win probability.
And that’s before we get to the outrageous 46% chance of advancing to the Boss Stage against the West, according to FiveThirtyEight.
What could be driving this huge divergence in pricing? Well, let’s consider the amount of money being bet on Nets futures at DraftKings:
Sixers are currently +700 to win the NBA title via DraftKings.
— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) May 17, 2021
The national reach and star power of the Nets is drawing huge sums of money on Brooklyn, far outpacing the volume of bets on them. This sort of action has the ability to shrink the Nets’ odds so sportsbooks can de-risk and compel bets on other teams… like the Sixers.
Point is: If you like the Sixers’ chances, at all, they are priced at a tremendous value right now when compared with some statistical models.
Bet at your own risk.