Phillies vs. Red Sox Pick and Prediction: Expect More Offense Tonight

phillies red sox pick
PHOTO CREDIT: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies head to Boston to play the Red Sox tonight after after securing a road series victory over the Cubs at Wrigley last night. The Red Sox enter play after a day off yesterday, following a 3-3 west coast road trip.

Let’s jump into a look at the betting odds and make some Phillies vs. Red Sox picks and predictions for this matchup on July 9, 2021.

Boston holds a 2.5-game lead atop the American League East and the joint best record in the AL, while Philadelphia sits second in the National League East, four games back of the New York Mets.

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Phillies vs. Red Sox Betting Pick

Let’s take a quick look at the current Phillies vs. Red Sox betting odds:

TeamOddsMoneylineTotal
Rays+1.5 (-165)+120O 8.5 (-110)
Phillies-1.5 (+145)-140U 8.5 (-110)

The Phillies send Vince Velasquez to the hill with a chance to get back to .500 for the first time since June 19. Velasquez is off his worst start since late May. He allowed nine hits, three walks, two home runs, and five earned runs in an 11-1 loss to the Padres on the Fourth of July.

That was the third time in his last four outings that the righty allowed four or more runs, combining to throw just 14 1/3 total innings in those three starts.

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Velasquez has only lasted six or more innings in four of his 13 starts, leaving a ton of time for the historically bad Phillies bullpen to do what they do best, bleed late runs.

Interestingly, the right-hander has made 17 appearances this season, seven of which were Philadelphia losses where the opponent scored at least eight runs. In fact, a team has scored double-digit runs six times in games in which Velasquez has pitched this year.

Velasquez’s starts this season have produced an average of 11.1 total runs, with the last three starts exploding for 14.7 runs per game. His opposite arm this evening, Garrett Richards, has seen his own starts average 10.1 runs per game thus far in 2021, a number that has jumped to 11.3 over his last three outings.

Richards had an inflated 8.03 ERA in those most recent starts and each of his last five outings have produced double-digit runs per game.

In fact, he has not had a start stay under the posted total since June 1. The Boston right-hander has been particularly woeful at home, with a bloated 6.75 ERA and 2.08 WHIP. Thankfully for Richards, though, his teammates have supported him with 5.3 runs per game in his evening starts.

Phillies vs. Red Sox Betting Trends

Last season when these two clubs met at Fenway, Boston scored six runs in both games, while the Phillies averaged eight runs per game.

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Philly is on a current run of five straight games played over the posted total, averaging 14.4 total runs per game in that stretch. The Phillies allow 5.39 runs per game after a win this season, up from their season average of 4.64 runs per game against.

They also have higher total run averages in games following shutouts (like their 8-0 win yesterday). After scoring eight or more runs in a win, like the Phils did for the tenth time this season yesterday, they allow 7.2 runs per game in their next game.

Boston has had a day off after a road trip three other times this season, with the first home game afterwards averaging 11 total runs per game. Boston also enters off back-to-back losses, having dropped the final two games at the Angels before flying home. Red Sox games following consecutive losses this season have produced an average of 10.6 runs per game.

The Phillies have played over in 7 of last 8 after a win.
The Phillies have played over in 4 of last 5 as a road dog.
The Phillies have played just 2 of last 9 interleague road games under against right-handed starters
The Red Sox have played just 1 of last 5 home games under
The Red Sox have played just 2 of last 8 home games under against sub .500 opponents.
The Red Sox have played 5 of last 7 home games over against right-handed starters.

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Phillies vs. Red Sox Prediction

With Richards and Velasquez each struggling lately and two quality offenses going head-to-head, we will side with the over in the series opener.

Our Pick: Phi/Bos Over 11 (DraftKings -110)

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