Flyers vs. Capitals Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction (November 6, 2021)
On Saturday night, the Philadelphia Flyers (5-2-2) wrap up a short, two-game road trip when they visit the Washington Capitals (5-1-4) at Capital One Arena. This marks the first of four meetings between the Metropolitan Division rivals this season. Both teams are coming off overtime losses. The Flyers, who have points in four of their last five games, dropped a 3-2 decision in Pittsburgh on Thursday while the Caps, who have lost three-of-four, lost to Florida 5-4 after rallying from a three-goal deficit to tie the score.
Let’s get into our Flyers vs. Capitals betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this November 6, 2021 matchup.
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Flyers-Capitals Preview
The Flyers just played a Penguins team that was missing a boatload of talent due to both injury and Covid-19 protocols and seemed shorthanded on paper coming in – and still lost.
While the Capitals situation isn’t as dire, they too will be without three of their top six forwards Saturday. NIcklas Backstrom hasn’t played yet this season. T.J. Oshie will miss his fifth straight game and now Anthony Mantha is on the shelf after suffering a shoulder injury in the loss to Florida.
That doesn’t make the Caps vulnerable, as Pittsburgh proved, it just means they may look and play differently than you are used to seeing them.
It also explains the Caps weird start to the season. They’ve only won five of their 10 games but have earned points in nine of them, losing four times in overtime prior to reaching a shootout.
Meanwhile, the Flyers have been consistently solid, and that starts from the goal line out. Both Carter Hart and Martin Jones have been excellent in goal for Philadelphia thus far. That, and a complete buy-in on team defense from the skaters has the Flyers tied for fifth in the NHL is goals against per game (2.56). By comparison, last season the Flyers finished last in the NHL in that category (3.52).
Some think the offense has been sputtering, but it hasn’t. True, they have scored fewer goals in the last four games (seven total), but three of the Flyers four lines have been playing well and dictating play in the offensive zone. Only the second line – Cam Atkinson, Derick Brassard and Joel Farabee – have dropped off a little after a scorching start.
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Flyers vs. Capitals Odds
Here are the lines for Flyers vs. Capitals at FanDuel Sportsbook:
Spread: Flyers (+1.5, -192), Capitals (-1.5, +154)
Moneyline: Flyers (+136), Capitals (-164)
Over/Under: Over 6 (-120), Under 6 (-102)
Bets We Like with a Capitals Win
Capitals to win and both teams to score 2-plus goals in regulation (+240, BetMGM)
If the Capitals are going to win this game – and they are a decent favorite in the contest, they’re going to have to find a way to score against the Flyers stingy combination of defense and goaltending that has been their calling card to start the season. Washington has scored at least two goals in every game this season, so that’s a bonus for this bet, and they have allowed at least two goals in eight of their 10 games this season, with thee only two that they didn’t coming against the offensively challenged New Jerseys Devils and the offensively inept Arizona Coyotes. If you like the Caps to win, rather than just betting them as a favorite and having to lay some wood (-160, BetMGM) flip the odds in your favor just by guaranteeing two goals by each team.
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Bets We Like with a Flyers Win
Total Goals OVER 1.5 in the first period (-137, Barstool Sportsbook)
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If there’s a trend the Flyers are noticing it’s that they do are a better team when they get a faster start. When the Flyers score first, they are 5-0-1. When they don’t score first, they are 0-2-1. Extrapolating that out further, when the Flyers win the first period they are 4-0-1 and have only won one game (1-2-1) when they didn’t win the first period, and that was a 3-0 win over Arizona in which the Flyers scored all three goals in the third period. While the first period hasn’t been especially high scoring in either Flyers or Capitals games (the Flyers have outscored their opposition 11-6 while the Capitals have outscored their opponents 11-7), both teams are averaging more than a goal in the first period and, like the Flyers, Washington is better when they score first (4-1-2) and lead after the first period (4-1-1). As such, both teams will be looking to have some jump early in the game. Combine that with this trend: The first period total has gone over 1.5 in 11-of-13 when the Flyers are coming off an overtime game, and this sounds like a worthwhile risk, even if it’s not a value bet.
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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome
Alexander Ovechkin to score at least one goal (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
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It’s crazy that this is an even money bet, right? But that’s how good Ovechkin has been to start the season. He has 10 goals in 10 games already and he is one goal away from tying Brett Hull for fourth place on the NHL all-time list of goal scorers with 741. He has the opportunity to tie Hull (and maybe pass him) against the Flyers, a team he torches more than most. In 63 career games against the Flyers Ovechkin has 42 goals and 71 points. He has only scored more goals against one other team (Carolina, 43) and can match that with a goal against Philadelphia tonight.
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Flyers vs. Capitals Prediction
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This should be a tough game all the way around. We think both teams will light the lamp a few times and expect it to be nip and tuck throughout. Washington has not been good once the game gets past regulation, but this time, we think they survive overtime and win one over the Flyers in a shootout.
Pick: Capitals 4, Flyers 3 (SO)
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