On Wednesday night, the Philadelphia Flyers (6-2-2) return home to host the Toronto Maple Leafs (7-5-1) at Wells Fargo Center. This marks the first of three meetings between the two teams this season. The Flyers are coming off a 2-1 victory in Washington last Saturday and have points in their last three games and five-of-six. Toronto lost their last time out, 5-1 to Los Angeles, but otherwise are coming off a successful 4-1-0 homestand.

Let’s get into our Flyers vs. Maple Leafs betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this November 10, 2021 matchup.

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Flyers-Maple Leafs Preview

The Flyers will play their eighth consecutive game without Ryan Ellis on the blue line. However, although teams usually take a hit defensively when one of their top rearguards go down, the Flyers have been really good at keeping the puck out of their own net.

In the three games Ellis played, the Flyers allowed nine goals (3.00 per game). In the seven games he’s missed, the Flyers have yielded 16 goals (2.29 per game).

Ellis won’t play again tonight, as Nick Seeler was once again recalled from Lehigh Valley to be in the lineup, But the Flyers top two pairs have been sensational without Ellis.


Ivan Provorov has only been on the ice for one goal against at five-on-five in 10 games.

Meanwhile, Rasmus Ristolainen and Travis Sanheim have been on the ice as a pair for just five even strength goals, or about one every other game.

So it’ll be the Flyers stingy defense against a high-powered Maple Leafs offense that scored 19 goals during the five-game winning streak prior to losing to Los Angeles.

Mitch Marner has exploded for Toronto, with three goals and eight assists over the last five game. John Tavares has been red hot as well with five goals in five games.

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Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Here are the lines for Flyers vs. Maple Leafs at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Spread: Flyers (+1.5, -235), Maple Leafs (-1.5, +186)
Moneyline: Flyers (+114), Maple Leafs (-137)
Over/Under: Over 6 (-115), Under 6 (-105)

Bets We Like with a Flyers Win

Flyers to score the first goal in regulation (-110, BetMGM)

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Entering their eleventh game of the season the Flyers have yet to win a game in which they trailed (0-2-2) and are undefeated in regulation (6-0-1) when they score first.

The Flyers are well-rested and have had a good first period in every home game. Toronto is going to try and push the pace and beat Carter Hart early, but the Flyers see the difference in the results when they play strong first periods compared to when they don’t, which was often the case in the past few seasons.

Meanwhile, Toronto has allowed the first goal in 10 of the 13 games they’ve played so far. Even though there’s not a lot of money to be made with these odds, the situation sets up nicely for the Flyers to make it a winning bet.

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Bets We Like with a Maple Leafs Win

John Tavares to score at least one goal (+170, Barstool Sportsbook)

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Toronto needs offense to win. When they were struggling earlier this season, its top players weren’t putting the puck in the net. They’ve started to in recent games, which has led to their 5-1-0 stretch.

Tavares has seven goals this season, and has scored in five-of-six. The Maple Leafs are 4-2-0 when he scores. The reason he is scoring is he is firing pucks on net with a lot more regularity. Tavares has amassed at least four shots on goal in eight of the Leafs 13 games and has only been held under three shots once – in Carolina.

If the Leafs are going to win, they’re going to need their best players to score. Could it be Marner, or Auston Matthews, or William Nylander? Sure. But considering Tavares is rolling right now and the odds are favorable, he’s the player we believe in the most, if the Leafs are going to win this one.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

The highest scoring period will be the second period (+255, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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For whatever reason, the one period when the Flyers seem to have hiccups defensively is the second period. The Flyers have allowed just 24 non-shootout goals this season. Half of them have been in the second period.

Meanwhile, Toronto has also allowed more goals in the second period than any other, although their disparity isn’t statistically significant, as they aren’t a good defensive team at any time in the game.

The best reason for this bet though is the Flyers are a shut down defensive team in both the first and third periods, having allowed just six goals in each frame through 10 games this season.

All of this adds up to a nice value bet for you that will have nothing to do with any bets the winner of the game.

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Flyers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

The Flyers showed some moxie with their defensive clampdown of a talented Washington team, in which they held Alex Ovechkin pointless. Toronto has been playing better lately, but their seven wins have come against teams with a combined record of 35-45-9 while their six losses have come against teams with a combined record of 38-21-11. The Flyers fit more into the second category, and on top of that, when you consider they’ve been winning from the goal line out, this matchup favors Philadelphia.

Pick: Flyers 4, Maple Leafs 2

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