The Denver Broncos play host to the Philadelphia Eagles Sunday afternoon in a critical game for both teams. Denver (5-4) sits last in the AFC West and 11th in the overall AFC standings, but also finds itself just a half-game out of the division lead and a three-seed. Obviously, this is a critical swing game for the Broncos, but the Eagles can also revive a fading season with an upset.
Let’s jump into this NFL Week 10 matchup with a look at the best Eagles vs. Broncos player props picks.
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Dallas Goedert Under 45.5 Receiving Yards
The Broncos boast the NFL’s No. 8 yardage defense (223.4 yards per game) and No. 2 scoring defense (17.0 points per game) this season. A big part of those successes has come via the defense’s ability to effectively cover opposing tight ends. The Broncos have limited every tight end they have faced to five or fewer catches and six or fewer targets through nine games. In fact, Denver has yet to allow any opponent’s tight end to score this season.
The only three tight ends to find any success against this unit have been Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and Dalton Schultz. In fact, they are the only tight ends to top this prop’s required number.
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While Dallas Goedert is obviously a talented tight end, enough so for the Eagles to let Zach Ertz go to Arizona in a trade a few weeks back, he still averages just 3.4 catches and 50 receiving yards per game. Without Ertz in the lineup making coverage more challenging for opponents, opponents will dedicate more attention to Goedert.
He is the team’s second leading receiver behind rookie DeVonta Smith, so he is unlikely to sneak up on anyone here.
Eagles All22 offense thread v.Chargers. Lets start with 1st drive 3rd down. Eagles in 13 with Chargers clearly showing zone. Hurts correctly moves from 1 read (Smith) to Goedert over the middle after seeing cover 3. Feels some pressure but pass should be completed as he is open. pic.twitter.com/DZ0absdTV1
— Jonny Page (@JonnyPage9) November 9, 2021
It stands to reason that Goedert’s production would increase with Ertz gone, and it has to a degree, but not enough to cause concern. In truth, he had just 43 yards against Los Angeles last week and caught just three passes in two of the Eagles’ three games since Ertz was moved. Goedert’s most impressive statistic this season has been his yards per catch average (14.9), which ranks third amongst qualified NFL tight ends. However, even that gaudy number would not be enough if he cannot top that three catch total here.
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As a whole, the Broncos are conceding an average of just 2.8 catches on 3.7 targets for 32.4 yards to opposing tight ends. Only five tight ends have a catch of 15 yards or longer against Denver this season, with none having a catch of 35+ yards.
Javonte Williams Over 48.5 Rushing Yards
Sure, Javonte Williams shares the Denver backfield pretty evenly with Melvin Gordon III, but we love his upside here against a rushing yardage total adjusted according to his share of carries. Based on Williams’ 4.9 yards per carry average on the season, he would need to see double-digit rushes in this one in order to cash this prop. The rookie averages over 10 carries per game thus far and has reached that double-digit number more often than not this season.
Be sure to check out our Eagles-Broncos betting pick.
We believe Williams’ big appeal for Denver here will be his proven ability to break big plays. He already owns five rushes of 20 yards or more and the Broncos may need that pop against a Philadelphia rush defense that, despite allowing the 13th most rushing yards per game, has only allowed five opposing rushers to break off runs of 15 yards or more.
Williams’ running mate, Gordon, has just one such rush this season and it came all the way back in Week 1.
Williams actually produced his first 100-yard effort last week when he rushed for 111 yards on 17 carries against the Cowboys, the NFL’s No. 10 run-stopping unit.
Just a regular day in the league for Javonte Williams…😤 pic.twitter.com/HDfxtBPcTc
— tarheelupdate (@tarheelupdate) November 7, 2021
Those 17 carries and 111 yards were both career highs for the young back, which would normally make us hesitant to back him here in his next outing. However, Gordon also had 21 carries a week ago, also a season high. Vic Fangio may be more inclined to lead towards the younger Williams given that heavy workload.
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Keep in mind that Gordon’s prior season high was 18 rushes back in Week 4, after which he received single digit carries in each of Denver’s next two games. Also note that Gordon has not carried the ball 20 or more times in consecutive games since the middle of the 2019 season.
Williams averages 51.8 rushing yards per game this season, plenty to cash this prop. His yards per carry have increased from 3.5 in September to 5.6 in October to 6.5 in November. Look for Denver to ride the young back to a total well above what this prop requires.
Noah Fant Anytime Touchdown Scorer
We see tremendous value here with Noah Fant to score, as most online sportsbooks are offering him with odds well over +200 to do so. Fant leads the Broncos in catches per game with 4.6 and is second in average targets with 6.6.
He should be fresh for this one, having missed last week on the COVID-19 list. Despite his absence, he still sits second on the team with three receiving touchdowns.
Frankly, Fant is the Broncos’ only threat at the position, too, as their other tight ends have just 18 total catches in the eight games in which he has played.
The Iowa product’s three scores this year came against Baltimore, Las Vegas, and Jacksonville. All three of those teams have allowed a lower percentage of passing touchdowns this season than the Eagles have. Philadelphia’s 1.8 passing touchdowns allowed per game has the Eagles tied for seventh-worst in that category.
Teddy Bridgewater finds Noah Fant on an out route and the tight end does the rest.
Broncos touchdown! pic.twitter.com/yIrT0bJ4eD
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) September 19, 2021
Most relevant to us, however, is the fact that eight of the 16 touchdowns Philly has allowed through the air have gone to tight ends. Tight ends have managed a score against the Eagles in six of their last seven games, with two different tight ends scoring for the Chargers last week.
Philadelphia has conceded 7.4 catches and 66.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends this year. Those averages have climbed to nine catches and 87.5 yards per game in the team’s last four contests. Look for Fant to be able to exploit the Eagles’ mediocre linebackers en route to his career high fourth touchdown catch of the season.
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