Carson Wentz played all 52 snaps in a 27-17 win against the Patriots on Saturday. He only threw the ball twelve times because the Colts have super-stud Jonathan Taylor running it, which is awesome. What a BEAST of a player. Ground and pound.

As you know, the Eagles get the Colts’ first round draft pick if Carson plays 75% of the snaps, or 70% with a playoff appearance. After the New England win, he’s at 97.4% of the snaps through 14 games, and will trigger that first rounder assuming the rest of the schedule plays out in this current fashion.

HOWEVER –

We can’t technically lock it in right now. Crossing Broad’s WENTZSNAPZ projection shows a 99.999999999999999% chance that the first rounder triggers, but you NEVER KNOW what can happen. Carson could quite possibly fall down the stairs tomorrow and injure his foot, and miss the rest of the regular season. And then the Colts could lose their final three games, all in overtime, with Indy taking 100 snaps in each of those games.

It’s incredibly stupid, but as long as there’s a 0.0000000000001% chance of something like that happening, we can’t say for sure that anything has been “clinched” or “locked up” or whatever terminology you want to use. We’ll know for sure soon, and listen, the Colts could be a wild card playoff team. They are 8-6 and still have an outside chance at winning the AFC South due to Tennessee’s loss against Pittsburgh. 70% could get the job done. We might not even need the 75% anyway.


The only thing that kind of blows is that because the Colts are winning, the Eagles’ pick is going to be in the twenties. That’s a bummer, but it’s better than a second rounder. You can find great talent in the 20-30 range. This year Najee Harris and Rashod Bateman were pulled in that range, and last year Justin Jefferson was pick 22. We just need Howie not to fuck it up in 2022.