On Monday night, the Sixers return home for Game 5 of their first round NBA Playoffs series with the Toronto Raptors. The Sixers missed out on a chance for the sweep on Saturday afternoon, but still hold a 3-1 series lead.

Let’s get into our Sixers vs. Raptors betting pick with player prop predictions, odds, and analysis for this April 25, 2022 matchup. 

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Sixers vs. Raptors Betting Pick (April 25, 2022)

Being a Sixers fan means knowing that disaster is always a bad bounce, a blown lead or a fluke injury away. Sixers fans are now fretting the right thumb injury of Joel Embiid, which is variously described as a ligament tear and a sprain, one of which sounds devastating and the other of which just sounds like an annoyance. Either way, Embiid was clearly limited in Game 4 on Saturday, and so there is a pall both on this series and a probable second round series against the Miami Heat.

Short term, though, the Sixers are still -5000 to win this first round series. Mostly, that is because the 3-1 series lead with two more home games left means that the Raptors have to win in Philadelphia twice to win the series when you may remember that they were pretty well blown out of both games here at the beginning of the series.

Another reason for that -5000 line is that the Raptors have their own injury issues. Scottie Barnes came back from the sidelines to play 26 minutes on Saturday, but he’s clearly still not 100%. Fred VanVleet left Saturday’s game with a left hip strain. The Raptors probably aren’t deep enough to beat a better team if they aren’t at full strength.

So the Sixers have plenty of motivation to finish this series tonight. Some rest for Embiid’s hand would be nice. And the thought of losing two straight and having to go back to Toronto for a Game 6…literally, let’s not go there.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Raptors at FanDuel Sportsbook:

  • Point Spread: Sixers -7.5 (-110), Raptors +7.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Sixers -330, Raptors +265
  • Total: 210

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

Sixers to Win and Under 210 Total Points (+220, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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The total keeps shrinking with every game that passes in this series, and the reasons for that are many and obvious. The Raptors were a very good defensive team in the regular season, and aside from an outright poor showing in Game 1 of the series they have continued to make scoring difficult for the Sixers. Totals in the last three games were 209, 205 and 212. Toss in the limitations to Embiid and VanVleet tonight, and the likelihood of these teams combining for more than 210 points seems low.

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Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Tobias Harris Over 7.5 Rebounds (-125, Caesars Sportsbook)

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The knocks from Sixers fans on Harris are that he is overpaid and that he shrinks from big situations. Harris has answered his critics (probably not thinking much about them anyway) with a very solid series thus far against the Raptors. Did you know that Harris has posted a double double in each of the past three games? We don’t recommend taking him for that tonight (it’s +290 if you can’t help yourself). The rebounding numbers are real, though, especially with Embiid’s injury making him a bit more reticent to retrieve misses.

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Joel Embiid Under 28.5 Points (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)

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Embiid’s injury is driving this total down, obviously, and it makes sense. A player with a bum hand is probably going to take fewer shots and may not have the same desire to get to the free throw line, where the injury to the shooting hand will probably have its biggest impact. More than anything, though, this under is fueled by the fact that the Raptors have held Embiid to 21 points or fewer twice already in this series, and he was more or less healthy before.

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Pascal Siakam Over 23.5 Points (-110, FOX Bet)

Siakam has had a decent series thus far, and his 34 points on Saturday were a big factor in this series still being a thing. Looking back further, though, we see that Siakam’s scoring has spiked toward the end of the season. In his last 15 games including this series, Siakam has scored at least 24 points nine times and in two of the other games he had 23 and 22. None of that makes this pick a lock, but it suggests value that might not be obvious.

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Sixers vs. Raptors Prediction

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Tonight we find out whether it really was (as Embiid suggested) a league imperative to keep this series from being a sweep on Saturday via some gently slanted officiating (the Raptors shot 10 more free throws in Game 4). If the whistle goes back to being even or, as it was early in the series, favors the Sixers, seven and a hook may not be enough for the Raptors.

Pick: Sixers -7.5 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook)

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