Eagles-Buccaneers Advanced Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers square off on Monday night in Tampa in the final game of the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend.

The Eagles limped into the playoffs (literally and figuratively) and are dealing with injuries and some struggles on both sides of the ball. Star WR AJ Brown won’t play on Monday night as he deals with an injury suffered in Week 18. QB Jalen Hurts is also banged up, recovering from an injured finger on his throwing hand.

But on the other side of the field, the Buccaneers are dealing with an injury to QB Baker Mayfield. He’ll play on Monday night, but it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be in the passing game.

Let’s take a look at some of the numbers and try to get a feel for how this game will go on Monday night.

Eagles vs. Buccaneers Betting Odds

Spread: Eagles -3 (ESPN BET)

Total: Over/Under 43.5 Points (ESPN BET)

Pennsylvania sports betting is sure to be very active ahead of tonight’s big NFC playoff showdown. Whether you’re in Philadelphia or across the river in New Jersey and want to take advantage of some great sports betting in NJ, make sure to have your picks in by kickoff, which is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN.

Betting Trends to Know for Philadelphia

The Eagles are 7-8-2 against the spread this year.
The Eagles were 5-4-1 against the spread on the road during the regular season.
- They were 0-3 ATS in their final 3 road games.
The over was 9-8 in Philadelphia games during the regular season.

There’s not much to glean from these numbers for Philly, as the Eagles were pretty close to .500 both against the spread and for points totals. But as the Eagles’ season went downhill, so did their road performances. After starting out 5-1-1 ATS away from Philadelphia, the Eagles’ recent 0-3 mark on the road is definitely concerning.

Betting Trends to Know for Tampa Bay

The Buccaneers are 11-6 against the spread this year.
The Buccaneers were 3-5 against the spread at home during the regular season.
The under was 11-6 in Tampa Bay games during the regular season.

If you bet Tampa Bay to cover the spread and the game to hit the under this year, it was one of the more profitable things you could do. The Bucs going 11-6 ATS is certainly impressive, as is the under hitting in 11 of 17 games. But when you look at the home record against the spread, it is a bit odd. An 8-1 ATS record away from Tampa is shocking to see. A 3-5 ATS record at home is just strange. Monday night’s game is in Tampa, so we’ll see if the Bucs’ struggles to cover at home continue.

3 Notes for the Game

DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert could come up big

With AJ Brown out with injury, many will rush to take the overs on DeVonta Smith’s receptions and receiving yards totals. Smith is certainly capable of having a big night, but don’t sleep on TE Dallas Goedert. Philadelphia went to Tampa Bay on Sept. 25 and won 25-11. Goedert posted 5 catches for 41 yards, while Smith had 4 catches for 28 yards. Obviously, circumstances are different this time around with Brown out.

The Buccaneers are a team you can pass against. While Tampa Bay sported the fifth-best run defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed, it had the third-worst pass defense in the league during the regular season. Thus, even without Brown in the lineup, Jalen Hurts should still have plenty of open targets.

Baker Mayfield has been solid against playoff teams

Against teams that qualified for the postseason this year, Mayfield has been electric. He’s thrown for 10 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions against playoff squads in 2023. Prior to November, he threw for 1 TD and 2 interceptions in losses to Philadelphia and Detroit. But since the calendar flipped to November, his numbers are an incredible 9 TD passes and 1 INT against this year’s playoff teams.

How much will Mayfield’s ankle/rib injuries affect him on Monday night? That remains to be seen, but he wasn’t himself last week in a narrow win over an awful Carolina squad. If he’s anywhere close to 100%, though, his numbers have been great when the competition has risen for the Bucs.

Tampa Bay has a knack for low-scoring games

The over/under for Monday night is set at 43.5 points. Last week, the Bucs beat Carolina 9-0. In the 2 games prior to that miserable win over the Panthers, the Bucs also saw game totals of under 43.5 points, with 36 and 42 total points scored against New Orleans and Jacksonville, respectively. With 2 banged-up quarterbacks, AJ Brown out and injuries affecting both squads, taking a good, long look at the under is probably a wise decision.

Eagles-Buccaneers Best Pick

Philadelphia by 3 is a scary proposition. But I do believe the Eagles will win this game by a field goal. Tampa Bay is too banged up and even though Philly’s defense has trouble stopping anyone, Mayfield not being at 100% will be the key to this game. Over at ESPN Bet, you can buy an extra half point on the line, taking it from Eagles -3 to Eagles -2.5. It moves the odds from -105 to -125, but that’s still worth it to avoid a potential push if Philly wins by exactly a field goal.

Best Pick: Eagles -2.5