A lot of things seem to be going against the Philadelphia Flyers at the moment.

They’ve lost four of their last five games and they’ll be without Travis Konecny for the third straight game, hosting the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday night.

The combination of the losing run, Konecny’s absence, and the Lightning sitting on 69 points means the Flyers are a home dog, and you’ll find them at +105 on the moneyline at PA sportsbooks and NJ sports betting apps.

Tampa Bay is 2-0 on its current road swing up the I-95 corridor and has a four-game road winning streak in February. In fact, the Lightning have one of the most dramatic home/road splits in February. They’re 4-2 on the road and 1-3 at home.

The Flyers haven’t won at home in 15 days and they last beat an Eastern Conference team on, gulp, February 6th.

The overall NHL betting numbers this season suggest the Flyers could be in for a rough night. Road favorites have won straight up at a 58 percent clip, but there is one silver lining in the data, per Covers.com.

NHL home underdogs have covered at a 61.9 percent rate for the season and they’re 15-4 in the last seven days.

Three of the Flyers’ last four losses have been one-goal defeats, but FanDuel and DraftKings know that, too. FanDuel lists at the Flyers’ puck line price at -230 and DraftKings has it at -238.

If the Flyers do win, they probably need a strong effort out of Sam Ersson in net. The under hit in Ersson’s last two starts and four of his seven February starts have had five goals or fewer.

Andrei Vasilevskiy will likely get the call in net for the Lightning after sitting on Sunday. He conceded exactly two goals in all four of his February road starts and he let up three goals or less in five of eight starts this month.

Ersson and Vasilevskiy will be backed by defenses that have not given up a ton of shots over the last 20 days. The Lightning allowed 28.3 shots on goal in that span, while the Flyers limited foes to 26.6 shots on goal.

The Flyers will be without Jamie Drysdale and Rasmus Ristolainen in defense, so there might be a small uptick in shots from Tampa Bay, but the Flyers did a good job of limiting shots in their last meeting with the Lightning. Tampa Bay only put 19 shots on Ersson, 15 of which were saved, in a 6-3 loss on January 23rd that only got out of hand because of two empty-netters.

Translation: the under is probably the way to go. I would shop around to make sure you get the total at 6.5 instead of 6 to avoid a push if there’s a 4-2 game.