The Super Bowl Most Valuable Player award is a quarterback’s honor.

32 of the 57 past MVPs were quarterbacks, including Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes on two occasions. With the game coming up this weekend, Mahomes at +125 is the betting favorite once again.

It’s the biggest night of the year for Pennsylvania online sports betting and New Jersey online sports betting, and the broad assumption is that if the Chiefs win, Mahomes will be the MVP. It’s the Tom Brady treatment. Brady won MVP five times and was only beaten out by Deion Branch and Julian Edelman in his seven Super Bowl victories. Branch had 133 receiving yards on 11 catches in Super Bowl 39 against the Eagles and Edelman produced 141 yards on 10 receptions in the 13-3 win over the Rams.

So there’s your baseline if you’re holding a Travis Kelce +1200 MVP ticket. The Chiefs tight end needs to light up the San Francisco 49ers defense and he probably has to catch at least one touchdown. Kelce is aiming to become the first tight end to ever win Super Bowl MVP.

Apply the same thinking to any other Chiefs offensive skill position players. Rashee Rice (+5000) needs to match Branch and Edelman, while Isiah Pacheco (+2800) needs 100 yards and multiple rushing touchdowns to be considered. Terrell Davis was the last running back to win Super Bowl MVP, in 1998, when he had 30 carries for 157 yards and three touchdowns.

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Christian McCaffrey, whose father Ed won the Super Bowl with Davis, is the better candidate to be the first running back to end the drought because of how important he is to the 49ers’ offense.

San Francisco’s success may not be directly correlated to Brock Purdy, who is the second favorite to win MVP, because McCaffrey could put up a stat line like 65 rushing yards, 60 receiving yards, and two touchdowns and win the award.

If we’re being honest, McCaffrey at +475 is the best “value” on the MVP odds board. He’ll be even more of a massive figure inside the 49ers offense on Sunday, because the Chiefs cornerbacks are that damn good. That’s why Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are +2000 and +6000, respectively, to win MVP.

For what it’s worth, if you want to bet on a defensive player to win the MVP, bet on the under or hope for a blowout.

Von Miller had 2.5 sacks in a low-scoring Super Bowl 50, Malcolm Smith (maybe the most irrelevant Super Bowl MVP ever. I never would’ve guessed him name if you asked me to name all of the SB MVPs) had a pick-six in Seattle’s 43-8 win. Ray Lewis is the only other defensive MVP this millennium and he had a massive performance in a 34-7 victory back in 2001.