The Heat are on a Back-to-Back and Missing Jimmy Butler, Which Means There's Betting Value to be Had
The Philadelphia 76ers have a chance to head into the NBA All-Star break on a three-game winning streak.
A week ago, that seemed impossible given the injury situation, but now Tyrese Maxey, Buddy Hield and Co. are back to winning ways and favored by three and a half points against the Miami Heat on Wednesday night.
They won’t have Tobias Harris, Nic Batum, or De’Anthony Melton, but they’re facing a Heat team without Jimmy Butler and playing the second leg of a road/road back-to-back.
Seems like, excuse the pun here, a slam dunk to bet the Sixers, doesn’t it?
The Sixers, believe it or not, have been a covering machine this season. They are 31-22 ATS, which is the third-best NBA number behind the Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder. Miami is only 25-28-1 ATS, but they’ve covered in each of their last four games.
The Heat’s ATS stats matter far less than their B2B numbers. Miami is 3-4 and averaging just 106.1 points per game on the second legs of back-to-back sets. Miami also shoots 43.7% from the field in the second leg of these sets.
That should level the playing field a bit when thinking about the six-point loss the Sixers suffered to the Heat on Christmas Day. Both Butler and Embiid did not play in that matchup as well.
Hield’s addition to the Sixers’ offense should help deal with the Embiid and Harris absences. Miami’s trade deadline acquisition, Terry Rozier, is out injured at the moment.
Hield should once again be a popular player prop selection. He hit the 20-point mark and hit at least four threes in each of his three games with the Sixers. His props sit at 17.5 points and 3.5 threes for Wednesday night. His assist prop is also worth consideration . He dished out 20 helpers in the last three games and his assist prop sits at 4.5.
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The very obvious Heat player prop angle is Bam Adebayo, who had 15 rebounds against the Paul Reed/Mo Bamba combination on Christmas and pulled off a triple double Tuesday night in Milwaukee. Adebayo’s rebound prop sits at 11.5.
All of Miami’s rotation players featured for at least 23 minutes last night. That’s important to note because Miami’s shooting dropped off in certain parts of their last two B2B games. The Heat had 46 points in the second and third quarters against San Antonio on February 7 and the Boston Celtics outscored Miami 66-46 after halftime on January 27th.
The more rested and confident Sixers have the advantage here, and if Miami’s slow scoring trend in B2B second legs continue, the Sixers could pull away late and head into the ASG break with a cover and hope to lock in a top-four seed in the Eastern Conference.