Villanova was one missed shot away from setting its men’s basketball program back at least 20 years on Wednesday night at the Big East tournament.

Sure, the ‘Cats survived and advanced thanks to a Justin Moore game-winning three-pointer against DePaul, but why should there be any trust in them after last night’s stinker?

In a befuddling twist, Marquette is only a 3.5-point favorite for Thursday’s Big East tournament quarterfinal.

I get it. Marquette won’t have point guard Tyler Kolek available, but the Golden Eagles are still the third-best team in the Big East and Shaka Smart holds a large advantage in the coaching matchup against Kyle Neptune.

Marquette beat Villanova twice in the regular season by scores of 87-74 and 85-80. The second game is vital to any handicap of Thursday’s quarterfinal.

Marquette went into the Pavilion with six healthy rotation players and won on January 30th. Kam Jones, who scored 30 points against Xavier on Saturday in Kolek’s absence, did not play in that contest.

Jones and Oso Ighodaro combined for 54 of Marquette’s 86 points on Saturday. Kolek is more distributor than scorer, so if the Golden Eagles get the ball to those two players, they should score with relative ease.

Scoring was one of Villanova’s many problems on Wednesday night against DePaul. The ‘Cats shot 11-for-35 from three-point range and only got to the free-throw line on six occasions. Villanova ranks first in Division I in free-throw shooting.

With a full college basketball slate at NJ sportsbooks and PA sportsbooks, the side on this over/under really comes down to which team you think will win. Villanova is on an eight-game unders streak and is 10-1 to the under in the last 11 games. Marquette is 4-2 to the over in its last six games despite a 13-18 mark to the over this season.

Both teams have winning records against the spread. Marquette is 18-12-1, while Nova is 17-15. Nova is 5-6 ATS as an underdog, but it failed to cover as a 6.5-point dog against the Golden Eagles on January 15th.

All of those numbers are nice, but also the eye test is a real factor here. Villanova hasn’t looked good in three of its last four halves of basketball. That’s far from ideal for a team squarely on the NCAA tournament bubble.