Rule No. 1 of March Madness: upsets will happen!

The degree of those upsets varies by the year. We probably will not see the Upsetapalooza from last year’s NCAA tournament that led to a Final Four of a No. 4 seed, two No. 5 seeds and a No. 9 seed.

Underdogs will always be popular in March Madness, but the better way to approach them is to bet on underdogs against the spread when you’re browsing your NJ sports betting apps and PA sports betting apps.

So here’s a look at the dogs, who at minimum can cover the spread on Thursday or Friday.

 

No. 15 Saint Peter’s (+21.5) vs. No. 2 Tennessee (Thursday, 9:20 p.m. ET)

Saint Peter’s owns the sixth-best ATS record among NCAA tournament participants. South Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa State, and UConn are the only teams in the field of 68 with a better ATS winning percentage.

The Peacocks, who captured our hearts two years ago with an upset over Purdue, face a Tennessee team that is 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 21 or more points this season. If you expand the sample size a bit more, the Vols are only 5-4 ATS as a favorite of 14 or more points.

Saint Peter’s went 2-1 as a double-digit dog in nonconference play. They rank in the top 50 in most defensive metrics and held all of their nonconference opponents to 71 points or less. That schedule included Seton Hall, A-10 tournament winner Duquesne, and Rutgers.

Another massive outright upset seems unlikely, but the Peacocks have the defensive qualities to at least be pesky.

 

No. 13 Samford (+7.5) vs. No. 4 Kansas (Thursday, 9:55 p.m. ET)

Samford is my personal favorite underdog on the board.

The Bulldogs play at a fast pace, love to press, and are 10 deep.

Kansas’ two best players, Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., are banged up, and although they’ll be back on Thursday, they aren’t close to 100 percent.

The Jayhawks are the opposite of deep. They only have six players who average more than 15 minutes per game.

Samford went 18-14 against the spread this season, while Kansas was only 13-18. The Jayhawks were only 5-9 ATS as a favorite of eight or more points.

 

No. 15 Western Kentucky (+14) vs. No. 2 Marquette (Friday, 2 p.m. ET)

I would recommend not betting any No. 14, 15 or 16 seeds outright this year.

The quality of teams is lower in those spots this season due to a ton of upsets in mid-major conference tournaments.

However, I think you can pick your spots with some double-digit dogs who will at least make things uncomfortable for the top seeds in each region.

That’s the role I think Western Kentucky can play with Marquette. The Hilltoppers are 19-11 ATS and an impressive 8-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They also play at the fastest pace in Division I.

WKU also has some better defensive metrics than the Golden Eagles, who may be rusty for a bit of the first half since their star point guard Tyler Kolek will be playing in his first game in three weeks.

I think this will be closer than the experts think, and if you believe rust is real for Kolek, WKU on the first-half spread or money line is worth a look as well.

 

No. 13 Charleston (+9.5) vs. No. 4 Alabama (Friday, 7:35 p.m. ET)

Alabama has the recent results of a team that wants to be upset.

The Crimson Tide gave up 100 points twice to Florida and once to Kentucky in their last six games.

Charleston averages 80.5 points per game and went 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season.

With that being said, Alabama is 10-3 ATS as a 9.5-point favorite or better, but if the Crimson Tide we saw over the last few weeks shows up again, Charleston will hang.