The Philadelphia 76ers are the biggest favorite in the NBA play-in round.

It makes sense, because at full strength, they’re closer to the second or third-best team in the Eastern Conference than the seventh.

It’s also terrifying because it’s the Sixers in a playoff-style game and Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat are the opponent.

The Sixers beat the Heat on April 4th at near full strength without Tobias Harris, which some Sixers fans may say is a benefit. Tyrese Maxey put up 37 points and Joel Embiid put up 29 points in 33 minutes.

Since then, Embiid eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of the three games he played in. The over on Embiid’s point prop of 30.5 will probably be one of, if not the, most-bet prop of the two East play-in matchups on Wednesday.

However, Embiid only hit the 30-point once in his last eight games against the Heat.

When you’re betting this game at PA sportsbooks or New Jersey online sports betting, it’s the classic case of trusting the numbers versus consulting the situation. The latter would lead you right to the over because Embiid is so vital to the Sixers’ success.

Embiid’s recent history against the Heat is more favorable for his rebounding prop. He has four double-doubles in his last six against the Heat and he finished the regular-season with 13, 11 and 12 boards. His rebound prop sits at 11.5 for Wednesday.

If Embiid doesn’t go over on points, there’s a decent chance Maxey will. Maxey scored 97 points in his last three meetings with the Heat and he hit the 30-point mark on all three occasions. Maxey’s point prop sits at 24.5

And then there’s the curious case of Butler. “Playoff Jimmy” has been a different animal at this stage of the year, but his lack of scoring recently means his points prop sits at 22.5. Butler averaged just 19 points per game in April, but once the calendar flipped to the playoffs last year, it was hard to bet against his under.

Butler scored at least 25 points in every game against Milwaukee in the first round and averaged over 24 points per game in the Miami’s three Eastern Conference series.

Butler’s presence, along with Erik Spoelstra’s coaching, would be the two reasons why the Heat can come away with an upset, or at least slow down the Sixers enough to frustrate them.

After all, we’re talking about the best team to the under in the NBA during the regular season, but if the Sixers figure out the Miami defense, the over is in play because the Sixers were ninth-best team to the over in the NBA.