No one would ever suggest blindly betting a trend.

But when you look at the history of Game 7 unders in the NHL playoffs as a whole and specifically in the Stanley Cup Final, it’s hard not to bet the under for Monday’s deciding game between the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers.

Game 7 unders have a 63 percent hit rate dating back to 2005 and they are 3-0 in the 2024 postseason. Additionally, there have been 14 straight Stanley Cup Final Game 7s in which the under hit dating back to the 1950s.

Since 2000, home teams are 4-3 in Game 7 of the NHL’s championship series, but  the last three Stanley Cup Final Game 7s were all won by the road team. Sidney Crosby led the Pittsburgh Penguins past the Detroit Red Wings in 2009, the Boston Bruins beat the Vancouver Canucks in 2011 and the St. Louis Blues downed the Bruins in 2019.

The road team trend plays in favor of the Oilers completing their epic comeback in the series. They outscored the Panthers 18-5 in Games 4-6 and have literally all the momentum on their side.

Oh, and the Oilers also have the best player in the world, Connor McDavid, on their team. McDavid had eight points across Games 4 and 5 and that led to him being the overwhelming favorite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy.

McDavid is anywhere from +140 to +160 at your favorite sportsbooks to score a goal in Game 7. He is the only player listed at over/under 1.5 points for Monday’s game. McDavid has five more points than anyone else in the series, which is why you could make a strong case for him winning the Conn Smythe even if Florida wins Game 7.

The Panthers do not appear to have anything going for them right now. They can’t slow down McDavid, Sergei Bobrovsky regressed throughout the series and their stars have not consistently shown up when they need them the most.

The only thing going in Florida’s favor is the Game 7 under trend. The Panthers love to play low-scoring, defense-first contests, like we saw in Games 1 and 2. Game 2 was the last time the under hit in the Panthers-Oilers series.

My guess is that a multi-goal performance from a Florida star player, like Matthew Tkachuk or Carter Verhaeghe, could get the job done for the Conn Smythe, but McDavid’s overall performance in the series outweighs anything any Florida player could do in Game 7.

I would look to Tkachuk, Verhaeghe and Aleksandar Barkov from a shots on goal perspective. All three players, and Vladimir Tarasenko, have 12 or more shots on goal in the series.

As for Edmonton outside of McDavid, I would take the other stars on the roster. Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard combined for 11 shots on goal in Edmonton’s second-round Game 7 win over the Vancouver Canucks. Edmonton will probably use its stars a ton in a close game and those three will be on the ice with McDavid the most in that situation. If you’re not into the NHL you can always play PA online casino or NJ online casino!