Phillies Have Edge Over Brewers with Cristopher Sanchez Pitching at Home
Nothing is slowing down the Philadelphia Phillies right now.
Not even the Milwaukee Brewers’ opener strategy, used to neutralize Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
The Brewers will once again start Jared Koenig as the opener on Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park. He’ll make way for Colin Rea once he’s done with the first three batters. It’s an annoying strategy, but the Brewers have to do it because of the splits Rea has against left-handed hitters. Lefties are hitting .265 and have seven home runs against Rea. Right-handed batters have a .229 BA and only one homer against him.
Koenig needed five pitches to get through the top third of the Phillies order on Monday, so from the Brewers perspective, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
That makes betting the early part of the game more interesting than if a traditional starter was being used, because in theory, there’s a smaller chance of the Phillies scoring in the first inning. In turn, the top of the order may not be able to make an impact until the third or fourth inning.
Koenig hasn’t given up an earned run in his last eight outings. He’s faced the same team twice in that span, so it’s not like you can use familiarity as the reason why the Phils will hit better in the first on Tuesday.
A no run first inning (NRFI) bet may be the best way to approach the game because Cristopher Sanchez has been more efficient at CBP than away from it. He’s got a 2.03 ERA at home and struck out almost double the number of batters at CBP. Remarkably, Sanchez has only allowed one home run.
That makes Tuesday’s game a turn off for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday promotion, where you get $5 in bonus bets back for each home run in a game where you place $25 on a pre-game home run bet.
Sure, the Phillies could tag Rea for some home runs from the second inning on, but even with the wind blowing out to left, Sanchez’s incredible numbers make it hard to put a ton of money in home runs.
I would still look to bet Schwarber and Harper to hit home runs because of Rea’s propensity to give up the long ball, but I would try to take advantage of DraftKings’ Up 2 Early Win promotion more than Dinger Tuesday. Don’t forget to check out the best PA sportsbook promos.
The Phils are only -166 on the money line. After the first inning, the Phils will have a clear advantage on the mound with Sanchez.
Betting the Phillies moneyline seems like an easy bet these days anyway, so I would look in that direction regardless of any promotions that are available to you.