The Philadelphia Phillies’ biggest series yet comes right after arguably the most disappointing one.

The Phils are listed at +120 to win the weekend series against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards.

Sure, there’s a home park advantage baked into the price, but if you look at the pitching matchups, it’s easy to understand what the odds makers are thinking.

Friday’s Ranger Suarez/Kyle Bradish matchup and Sunday’s showdown of aces between Zack Wheeler and Corbin Burnes are true toss ups. The Orioles have the edge with Grayson Rodriguez going up against Taijuan Walker on Saturday.

Friday’s game is actually vital to the result because I’d argue it’s their toughest matchup on paper.

Baltimore owns the sixth-best batting average against left-handed pitching. The Phils are seventh in the category, but they’ve also had close to 200 more at-bats against southpaws.

Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman leads the majors in hits against lefties. He and teammate Gunnar Henderson are two of eight players with an OPS over 1.000 versus southpaws. Rutschman is the only Orioles player with a home run in his career against Suarez.

For comparison, the Phillies have a single player, Bryce Harper, in the top 25 in OPS against righties. Harper and Kyle Schwarber each have a top 25 OPS against lefties, but that’s not relevant for the three pitching matchups in Baltimore.

It doesn’t help the Phillies that Suarez is coming off one of his worst starts of the season and Bradish had his best outing of the season last time out. Bradish allowed one hit over six innings against Tampa Bay on Saturday, while Suarez allowed eight hits in five frames in London against the New York Mets.

The good news for the Phillies is that Bradish has been rocked in three starts at Camden Yards this season, including a 2.2-inning outing to start June against the Rays. But the Phillies come into Baltimore with a weaker lineup to take advantage of that weakness with J.T. Realmuto on the IL, Trea Turner not yet back, Brandon Marsh rehabbing in Double-A, and Alec Bohm struggling at the plate.

Sure, Bohm, Bryson Stott and others could rise to the moment and thrive this weekend, but the recent numbers suggest the Phillies may struggle.

I would actually argue Walker is the most important player in the series. He’s coming off his best start of the season, and if he translates his pitching from London stateside, the Phils will not only be in good shape to win the series, but for the next stretch of the season as well.

Wheeler/Burnes could produce the best pitching showcase of the entire MLB season. I would sit back with a beverage and bet the under on Sunday.

Look on the bright side. If the series doesn’t go the Phillies’ way, they’re back at home on Monday and the rest of June looks very easy against San Diego, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami.

So please don’t come close to breaking out the panic button if the series doesn’t go their way.

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