Expectations are high for Saquon Barkley’s first season in a Philadelphia Eagles jersey.

Barkley comes to the Birds with three 1,000-yard seasons on his resume from six years with the New York Giants.

That’s important because of where his season-long rushing-yard prop checks in at. Barkley’s over/under for the season is listed at 1,000.5 yards.

That’s a number that the running back has cleared three times in his career, as noted above, but he has a single 1,000-yard season in the last four years.

Injuries and a piss-poor New York Giants offense are to blame for the drop off in production with the lone exception of a 1,312-yard season in 2022.


It’s the numbers from 2022 that should excite everyone who bleeds green about Barkley’s production next to Jalen Hurts.

I’ll add another intriguing factor to the discussion. New Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has had four 1,000-yard rushers in his time as an NFL offensive coordinator:

  • Ezekiel Elliott (2019) – 1,357 yards
  • Ezekiel Elliott (2020) – 979 yards
  • Ezekiel Elliott (2021) – 1,002 yards
  • Tony Pollard (2022) – 1,007 yards
  • Austin Ekeler (2023) – 628 yards

Last year’s lackluster production from the Los Angeles Chargers can be chalked up to Ekeler’s lack of durability and no real backup options who stepped up in his place. A lot of things went wrong with the Chargers last season, so I think it’s better to use the running back numbers from Moore’s time in Dallas to analyze what Barkley can achieve under him in Philly.

Saquon owns the sixth-lowest odds to be the NFL’s leading rusher. Christian McCaffrey is obviously the favorite, while Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson are between McCaffrey and Barkley on the odds board.

I would stay away from the +1000 at FanDuel, at least at the start of the season, because of the potential rushing yards Barkley could lose to Jalen Hurts. The whole point of signing Barkley was to hopefully take some pressure off Hurts in the ground game. Hurts ran for at least 600 yards in each of the last three seasons, though the Eagles did manage 1,000 yard rushers in D’Andre Swift and Miles Sanders behind a stellar offensive line.

Likewise, Hurts’ presence is why you should consider staying away from Barkley’s season-long touchdown prop.

Barkley’s over/under is set at 6.5 on NJ sports betting apps, and I understand if you want to hammer the over because he can carry more of the burden in the red zone, but the Tush Push still exists and Hurts isn’t going to completely give up on running the ball.

For reference, the sportsbooks do not believe Hurts will relinquish his role completely. He sits at +1000, the third-lowest odds, to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns. Only McCaffrey and Henry have lower odds. Barkley is well down the list at +2300.

The +2300 is worth a dabble after Week 1 or 2 if Barkley receives significant red-zone touches over Hurts, and you can consider PA sportsbook promos to apply if something intriguing pops up before the season, but for now, the best way to approach betting Saquon is with the over on rushing yards.