Everyone in the Delaware Valley is talking about the biggest college football game of the weekend. Oklahoma vs. Temple!

No wait, it’s Penn State vs. West Virginia in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.

Before we get into the game itself, a disclaimer:

The general rule is that Pagan and I go easy on PSU for two reasons. One, Crossing Broad has a lot of Nittany Lion readers. WE ARE! Appreciative of your support. And two, our teams kind of suck, so you can’t throw stones if you live in 3-9 houses. Pagan will do the “I’m actually jealous and wish I went to Penn State” type of clown post whenever James Franklin chokes in a big game, but we lay off Penn State otherwise and I always pull for the Lions when they play Ohio State, Michigan, or some other Big 10 douchebag programs.

That being said, I am a WVU alum and hope the Mountaineers kick the everliving shit out of the Nitters on Saturday. If it happens, I will create the most toxic environment the world has ever seen. I’m coming for every Penn State alum in the Philadelphia sports media and won’t stop until they block or mute me. They will never hear the end of it.


But I’m going on the record to say that I think Penn State wins a close game in Morgantown. I’m thinking 31-27 or 28-23 or something along those lines. I think Penn State wins, but does not cover the -7.5, a spread that has moved three full points in WV favor in a couple of weeks.

For starters, we won nine games last year and overachieved with a lame duck coach, we thought, who entered the season on the hot seat. We’re returning most of our offense, QB Garrett Green included, and playing at home, so that’s more or less the genesis of the “WVU will pull the upset” belief. Returning QB, RBs, good O line, nine wins, playing at home, excited fan base, etc.

But when you look a little closer at the schedule, who did we beat?

We beat:

  • FCS Duquesne at home
  • 3-9 Pitt at home
  • Texas Tech at home in a battle of backup QBs
  • TCU on the road
  • UCF on the road
  • BYU at home
  • Cincy at home
  • Baylor on the road
  • North Carolina in a bowl game that Drake Maye opted out of

We basically eliminated the bottom half of the Big 12. Texas, Kansas, ISU, and K-State weren’t on the schedule. We got thumped by Oklahoma and Penn State, lost to Houston in the final seconds, and gave up 48 to Oklahoma State at home. Pitt ended up being total butt, TCU was a disappointment, and the rest of those teams were bang average.

So it was nice to win nine games for the first time since 2016, when Dana Holgorsen was chugging Red Bull on the sideline. I just don’t see an impressive win on that schedule, though, and that’s why I’m hesitant going into this one. We’ve got a good offense. The defense is somewhere from average to above-average. The head coach saved his job.

Penn State, meantime, is working in three new coordinators and has Drew Allar out there with a full season of experience under his belt. There’s been a lot of talk about the concern with PSU’s receiving corps, and the lack of big passing plays in 2023. Can Allar push the ball down the field with any kind of regularity in 2024? Can they rip off explosive plays at a reasonable rate? If Penn State can’t threaten in the passing game, a stellar running back stable is going to be limited going up against heavier boxes. They have to find a way to open things up a bit more, because they looked REALLY limited at times last season.

Here’s the key to the game:

West Virginia was 5-0 last year when running the ball for 200 yards or more. Do you think that happens against Penn State? I don’t, not even with PSU working in some new guys on defense (otherwise known as reloading). Philly’s Abdul Carter is the best player on either roster going into this game. Kevin Winston Jr. is back. We managed 146 in Happy Valley, but at only 3.7 yards per clip, and couldn’t get enough going through the air to create a real balance. We’re built to pound the rock and play with a lead, control the clock, all of that, so if Greene has to throw the ball to an average receiver group while playing from behind, that’s not ideal. We played hard but couldn’t hang last year and ended up losing 38-15, with accusations that Franklin ran up the score. Ridiculous, by the way, because we scored late against the second unit and tried a two-point conversion, so their backups were perfectly justified in returning the favor.

I guess it’s shitty to pick against your own team, but I’m just not feeling it. Penn State is still Penn State, i.e. loaded with talent and ranked in the top 10 to begin the season. They just don’t lose these types of games. They haven’t lost a non-conference game since 2016, when they turned the ball over four times against the fighting Pat Narduzzis. The best thing we’ve got going for us is continuity and identity on offense, and a hope to catch PSU out of sorts with three new coordinators coaching their first game. If you can come out and hit them in the mouth, establish the ground game, then great, let’s fuckin goooooo. But if there’s a fugazi turnover early or Allar hits on a big chunk play or two, then we’re playing from behind.

So yeah, Penn State by 4-5 points. PSU wins but does not cover the -7.5, then we all shake hands and say “good game” and move on. But if WVU wins: