The Philadelphia Phillies did what any smart franchise would do for a big series.

They set up their rotation to have their best pitchers take on the Atlanta Braves in a four-game set that could determine the National League East.

The Phils will send Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola to the mound in that order, so it’s not a huge surprise they are a -145 series favorite at DraftKings.

As frustrating as Taijuan Walker’s performance was on Wednesday, it was a necessary sacrifice so that Sanchez could open the Atlanta series and to hopefully end with a division lead larger than the current five-game advantage.

Atlanta has Charlie Morton, Reynaldo Lopez, Max Fried, and Spencer Schwellenbach lined up. The Phils avoid Chris Sale, who started on Wednesday in Minnesota.


The Phillies lineup has favorable numbers against Morton and Fried, so you have to see Thursday and Saturday as the best opportunities to win.

Suarez and Nola cancel out the advantages Atlanta would have in a normal series throwing Lopez and Schwellenbach. I would call Friday and Sunday toss ups that have a high expectancy for the unders to hit.

Thursday could be a springboard for the entire weekend if the Phils take advantage of their head-to-head numbers against Morton.

Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, and Kyle Schwarber all have batting averages over .300 against Morton in 20-plus at-bats. Bohm and Harper hit .444 and .423, respectively, against him.

J.T. Realmuto isn’t far behind in the batter-versus-pitcher numbers. He has a .294 average in 34 ABs against Atlanta’s Thursday starter.

Morton is going to find a way to grind through five or six innings. That’s just the type of pitcher he is at the late stage of his career. He’s allowed 30 hits, 13 earned runs, six home runs and issued eight walks in 25.2 August innings. He’ll finish with some weird line of 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 6 K and should see the Phils’ best hitters three times.

The Phillies’ team total is the best bet for Thursday, and it might be as well for Saturday against Fried, who didn’t make it out of the first inning at Citizens Bank Park in April. The Phils lineup is stacked with players who have had success against Fried in their careers. It’s actually harder to find a player who hasn’t thrived against the southpaw in the Phils lineup.

Some of the Braves hitters do have strong numbers against the Philadelphia starters, mainly Aaron Nola, who allowed multiple home runs in his career to five different active Braves players.

I’m stating the obvious, though, that the Braves are far-less equipped for this series without the injured trio of Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Austin Riley.

Who comes up with the big hits outside of Marcell Ozuna is a huge unknown for Atlanta, and if you’re looking at this game with New Jersey online sports betting, this is a lineup that struck out at an incredibly high rate of late. The Braves have the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the last 30 days and the seventh-worst for the entire season.

There’s a ton of strikeout potential not just for the Phils starters, but for the relievers in key situations as well, and that could be the difference in pulling out a series win and extending the NL East advantage over Atlanta.