The Philadelphia Phillies are only a -115 favorite to win the midweek series with the Braves despite all of Atlanta’s injury issues.

Austin Riley was diagnosed with a hand fracture on Monday, so that leaves the Braves without Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., and Ozzie Albies in their lineup. The cobbled-together Braves lineup, where Marcell Ozuna is really the only true threat, has to face Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the first two games without Riley in the lineup.

It’s taken the Braves some time to adjust to big holes in their lineup already this season. They lost the first four games after Albies went out in mid-July and they dropped three of four against the Washington Nationals in the series after Ronald Acuna Jr.’s injury.

So it’s very reasonable to think the Braves will suffer an emotional letdown as they try to figure out what’s the best way forward for their lineup.

It’s also worth noting that Riley has incredible numbers against Wheeler and Nola. He has six career home runs off Nola alone. He’s been a massive part of the Braves’ matchups with the Phillies in the last few seasons.


Outside of the top four, the Braves have been striking out at a super high rate, which plays right into the hands of Wheeler and Nola.

Atlanta is tied for sixth in team strikeouts and is one strikeout away from the highest punchout rate over the last 30 days. Only the Colorado Rockies have struck out more in that span. To that end, one PA sports betting promo is at FanDuel, where you can get Zack Wheeler 6+ strike outs and a Bryce Harper hit boosted to +120. Wheeler 6+ strikeouts as a standalone number is priced at -295 and 7+ at -130, while Harper is -260 to record a hit.

The Phillies finally have some momentum and a fully-rested Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto going into Atlanta. There’s a big opportunity here to eliminate Atlanta not just from the NL East conversation, but from the entire playoff race in the two series over the next two weeks.

The Phils won’t face Chris Sale, who has been Atlanta’s best pitcher by far, and they’ve got the pitching edge with Wheeler and Nola going up against Reynaldo Lopez and Max Fried.

Lopez is making his first start off the injured list on Tuesday, while Fried has been average since the All-Star break and has some terrible batter-versus-pitcher splits against the heart of the Phillies lineup.

Thursday’s matchup between Cristopher Sanchez and Spencer Schwellenbach is a battle of the breakout pitchers on each roster, and even though Sanchez’s road splits are not great, he could thrive in that matchup because of how poorly the bottom half of the Braves lineup has hit recently.

Nothing is ever a 100 percent guarantee in betting on baseball, or betting on anything, but there’s a very strong chance the Phils win at least two games instead of the Braves galvanizing themselves and making one last charge at the division title.