Get ready for the NFL to consume your lives for the next four months!

Thursday night’s opener between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs is the first of many marquee clashes we’ll drop everything to watch until February.

The Chiefs are going for the first-ever Super Bowl three-peat, and if you believe in numerology and shit like that, it’s fitting they are a three-point favorite at home on Thursday night.

A year ago, the Chiefs were one of the surest things in NFL betting, as they went 13-7-1 against the spread. The Ravens weren’t bad either, with a 12-7 ATS mark, but that number gets thrown away by most because it’s Patrick Mahomes at home in a season opener.

Mahomes is 5-1 straight up in season openers as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback. The only loss came last year at the hands of the Detroit Lions.


While we think of the Chiefs as this dominant team, their defense, at least in Week 1 during the Mahomes era, has not been great. Kansas City’s last six Week 1 opponents scored at least 20 points.

That goes in line with the recent history between the Ravens and Chiefs. Both teams eclipsed the 20-point mark in four of their last five meetings. The only low-scoring affair of that run was last year’s AFC Championship Game.

But here’s a statistic that will make your head spin –

The Chiefs had a 7-14 record to the over in 2023. Only the Los Angeles Chargers and Carolina Panthers were worse against the over.

That’s a combination of the lines being so sharp on one of the best (and most bet) teams in the NFL, Kansas City having certain games wrapped up before the fourth quarter, and a miserable AFC West last season.

The player prop market may be the best way to attack Thursday’s opener on NJ sports betting apps and PA sports betting apps, because the lines are a bit lower for the key players than they will be by mid-October.

Travis Kelce should be the No. 1 player prop target. I know it’s a super square move, but numbers never lie. He’s had at least six receptions and 70 receiving yards in each of the five games he’s played against the Ravens.

Kelce’s receiving-yard prop sits between 57.5 and 59. and his reception prop is over/under 5.5. FanDuel is offering a No Sweat Bet on any market in the Ravens-Chiefs game. I would use that on Kelce in some capacity.

DraftKings is offering a 50 percent boost on any bet for TNF as well as a boost for Derrick Henry or Travis Kelce to score a touchdown.

Henry is now the Ravens’ top running back and he has six career touchdowns in four games against Kansas City. He scored two times against them on three occasions. Kelce only has two career scores versus the Ravens.

I’d look into the BetMGM “Second Chance” promotion for Henry. BetMGM will give your cash back if your choice to score the first touchdown scores the second touchdown of the game.

Bet365 has boosted odds for Lamar Jackson to throw one touchdown pass at +100. Jackson has four career passing TDs against the Chiefs in four games. He has 12 career pass TDs in Week 1. Last season’s opener against Houston was the only time Jackson did not throw for a touchdown in an opener.

As for who Jackson will throw to, Zay Flowers has to be the top player-prop target among the Ravens pass-catchers. He had 115 receiving yards in the AFC Championship Game and is Jackson’s clear No. 1.

A Same Game Parlay featuring Kelce and Flowers’ receiving yard props is probably the best way to go if you are a fan of SGPs.