We’ve got a good, old-fashioned Clinch Off on Wednesday night in Milwaukee.

Okay, it’s not exactly the most enticing billing for a game, but both teams do have a chance to clinch something with a win.

The Phillies can clinch a playoff berth with a win behind Aaron Nola and a New York Mets loss to the Washington Nationals.

Milwaukee can lock up the NL Central with a win or a Chicago Cubs loss to the Oakland Athletics. The Cubs play in the afternoon, so the Brewers might be less motivated to win if Chicago loses to the A’s, which happened on Tuesday.

The Phillies sit as a +105 underdog on the money line right now before any potential change in clinching scenario. The over/under is a fairly low 7.5 because Freddy Peralta is opposing Nola.


Nola and Peralta carry similar pitching profiles. Both hurlers have a ton of strikeout potential, but there are games where they get hit and give up some long balls.

Peralta and Nola have each allowed 19 hits in three September starts. Nola’s allowed three more earned runs (12 to 9) and two more homers (5 to 3), but he has nine more strikeouts (21 to 12) in that span compared to Peralta.

It’s not surprising at all to see similar props listed for Wednesday’s starters. They are both at plus-money to go over their strikeout props of 6.5. They each have an outs recorded prop set at 17.5 and earned runs allowed at over/under 2.5. Peralta’s hits allowed line is set over/under 4.5, while Nola is over/under 5.5.

The over on Peralta’s hits allowed prop is the best way to fade either one of the starters because the Phillies have some tremendous numbers against the Milwaukee ace.

Nick Castellanos owns a .412 batting average in 17 at-bats with one homer and five RBIs against Peralta, while Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper each have two homers in 11 ABs versus the right-hander.

A Harper/Schwarber/Castellanos hit parlay carries odds of +219 at FanDuel and +204 at DraftKings. Schwarber is -145 at DK to get a hit. The odds on his hits are always low, and for this matchup, it seems like great value given his history against Peralta.

All three players sit at plus-money to have over 1.5 total bases. For Pennsylvania sports betting, the other prop I’d look into is Castellanos RBIs. Alec Bohm doesn’t have a hit off Peralta in six career at-bats and is still shaking off some rust from his injury absence. If Schwarber and Harper reach base on Wednesday, Castellanos will probably be the one that drives them home.