Phillies Weekly Mailbag: NL East Clinch Night, Spencer Turnbull, Bullpen Trust Ranks
The Phillies dropped three of four to the New York Mets this weekend at Citi Field but remain in the driver’s seat to clinch their first NL East title since 2011.
I’m surprised we didn’t get many negative comments after that series. It sure wasn’t a pretty one, and the overreactions were flying all over the timeline Sunday night after the series loss.
The Magic Number is 1. Win Monday, and the NL East comes back to Philadelphia. Let’s get into some of the questions for Mailbag #2.
MAILBAG MONDAY: Drop all of your Phillies questions, comments, and takes down in the replies of this tweet NOW for my second mailbag with @CrossingBroad. It’ll be out later today🤟
— Luke Arcaini (@ArcainiLuke) September 23, 2024
“While it is apparent we could have used a 5th starter at the deadline, is it fair to say a combination of Turnbull & Painter will be the most likely 5th starter in 2025 behind Wheeler, Nola, Suarez and Sanchez?”
Spencer Turnbull is not under contract in 2025. He’ll hit free agency once this season is done. I have a hard time believing the Phillies’ top choice is bringing him back when Andrew Painter is waiting in the wings.
On the flip side, Turnbull was awesome when he was healthy. Do the Phillies trust him to come back and throw 100 innings next year when the worry with him this year was dead arm?
The Phillies’ ideal rotation in 2025, if you could possibly get off of the Taijuan Walker contract, would be this (order could change based on Painter’s performance)
- Zack Wheeler
- Aaron Nola
- Cristopher Sanchez
- Ranger Suarez
- Andrew Painter
“Who or what is the biggest threat to the Phillies moving forward in the playoffs?”
It sounds weird, but the unknown. The team feels really good about where they’re at. They have a really good lineup, rotation, and bullpen. They have bench guys that have emerged. This is by far the deepest team of the last three years.
The lingering concern right now is probably just catching a hot team at the wrong time. Even if they do, they’re still more skilled than any team in the National League. But playoff baseball is weird. You truly never know what’s going to happen.
If you’re looking for a player answer, I’d say Ranger Suarez not pitching like himself. A Game 4 could get dicey if Ranger looks like he has the last month. But you have to bank on Suarez’s postseason success over the last two years. If you get that, this team is in really good shape.
“Any chance Spencer Turnbull makes the postseason roster?”
If Spencer Turnbull feels 100% ready to go, I think he’s on the roster. He hasn’t pitched in the Majors since June 26th. Turnbull threw two innings in relief in Lehigh Valley on Sunday and will throw live batting practice on Thursday in Clearwater, per Destiny Lugardo.
It was an unfortunate break for Turnbull this year with the injury. He looked unbelievable to start the season. If the Phillies added April Turnbull to their playoff bullpen, that would give them an even bigger boost to an already-elite pen.
“Is it crazy to say Estevez is the 4th (or even 5th) best reliever on the team? I trust Hoffman/Strahm far more and still trust Orion more (despite his blowup). Then you could make cases for Ruiz/Alvarado. Worried about him being locked in the 9th in tied/1 run games.”
I don’t hate that take at all. I’d trust Estevez over Ruiz, but not as much as most people would. I don’t think Rob Thomson will limit his 9th innings in October to just Estevez.
Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm can close games. Playoffs are all about matchups. Hell, Zach Eflin was practically the closer in 2022. It’s all about who’s at the plate and what type of outs you need prior to the 9th. If you have a 1-run lead and Estevez and Hoffman are both available, it’s Hoffman 10 out of 10 times for me.
Do you think Topper will put Sanchez in the rotation before Suarez? I don’t, but I’m curious about your opinion. Topper is too loyal and doesn’t seem to like change.
Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez should, and probably will be, the first three pitchers in a playoff series. Sanchez has earned to start ahead of Suarez. I think the coaching staff and front office realize that Cristopher Sanchez gives them a better chance to win right now than Ranger Suarez.
With that being said, I’m still in the belief that Ranger Suarez finds it when the lights get bright. He always has. If you get 2022 playoff Suarez, they’ll have some decisions to make later in the playoffs.
Which player(s) on the roster would be the best fit for the Savannah Bananas?
Brandon Marsh, but I think Jose Alvarado would be hilarious out there. Garrett Stubbs would fit right in with their vibe as well.
What is the biggest area of concern on the team heading into the playoffs? What is the most likely reason the team comes up short?
I really don’t have many concerns. They’re deep, and they’re elite. I’d say the bats going cold would be the reason, but that can happen to anybody in this league. I’m very confident in the rotation and bullpen to hold their end down. If this offense hits like they should, this team should find themselves back in the World Series again.
Should the Phillies sign Trevor Bauer this upcoming off-season?
No.