The Numbers Behind Betting Eagles vs. Packers in Sao Paulo
The Philadelphia Eagles season begins in a spot where an NFL game has never been played.
The NFL is shipping the Eagles and Green Bay Packers to Sao Paulo, Brazil to not just open the season at an international site, but on a Friday as well.
Nothing is normal about the setting of the game, but there is still some data we can pull to potentially figure out how the Packers/Eagles matchup will go.
Results across the various NFL international sites have varied over the years.
For example, the three games played in Germany all have had fewer than 40 points, but all of the contests played in Mexico City surged over the 40-point mark.
The London games have had a mixed bag of results, but it’s worth noting that both teams scored 20+ points in five of the eight London games dating back to 2021.
The Eagles and Packers have each played a single international game in their franchise histories. The Eagles won 24-18 over Jacksonville in London in 2018, while Green Bay lost 27-22 to the New York Giants in London in 2022.
The international data can’t teach us a whole lot about the Brazil game, but potentially last season’s numbers give us a better idea of what will happen on Friday.
The Packers went 11-8 against the spread, while the Eagles were only 7-9-2 ATS. Green Bay was 11-8 to the over and the Eagles went 9-9 to the over.
I’d argue the biggest variable in Friday’s game is how Green Bay’s wide receivers match up against the Eagles corners.
The Eagles made it a point to improve their secondary in the offseason following the end-of-year collapse led by the poor secondary play.
The Packers’ No. 1 pass-catcher, Christian Watson, is one of the more often injured players in the NFL. Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks rotated in and out of the star pass-catcher role for Jordan Love throughout Watson’s injury absences.
The player prop market is far clearer to figure out on the Eagles side because A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley are the main players around Jalen Hurts.
The nice thing about Week 1 is the amount of NJ sportsbook promos and PA betting promos that we can use for Friday’s game, and Eagles player props are worth targeting more.
DraftKings is handing out No Sweat touchdown tokens for each of the four Week 1 game days. Jalen Hurts will be a popular play for that promotion.
BetMGM is offering a Pro Football No Sweat token plus an offer on first touchdown scorers. If your choice for first touchdown scorer does not score first, but scores second, you get your stake back in cash.