Eight Thoughts on Phillies vs. Mets in the NLDS
The Phillies and Mets will square off in the postseason for the first time in Major League Baseball history, starting Saturday at 4:08 p.m. on FOX.
Phillies fans are a little on edge. I get it. A division rival that’s playing some hot baseball is coming into your city after you haven’t played a real game in five days.
But did we forget how good the Phillies are? Do we only remember the 67 losses and not the 95 wins? It’s going to be an unbelievable series. Both CBP and Citi Field are going to be insane. These fans are ready.
Here’s where I’m at with the series as a whole. I feel confident, but it’s not going to be a cakewalk.
1) This series is going to be a war
The Mets have the look. That doesn’t mean I’m scared of the Mets, because I’m really not. The Phillies are better on paper in every aspect of the game. But the Mets have that look to them.
You have to put the series away early. They’re playing with house money and know they probably shouldn’t be here. Their bullpen isn’t good. Their starters have thrown some big innings recently, but aren’t big hard-throwing powerhouses. Their lineup is hit or miss, and they’ve hit recently.
Don’t let the Mets think they even have a chance. Come out on Saturday and run through these guys. They’re going to try to come in here and hold up their stupid “OMG” signs and pictures of Grimace to try and propel their team to a win. It’s not going to happen.
2) Phillies Game 2 starter
I think it has to be Cristopher Sanchez. We talked about this a few weeks ago, and I think there’s a case for both sides. You hope to go up 1-0 with Zack Wheeler, then throw Aaron Nola and hope to lock in a 2-0 lead.
But I don’t think you throw Cristopher Sanchez into Citi Field for his first big playoff start. Although they may be a tad skewed from a few bad starts, Sanchez’s home/road splits are real. He looks so comfortable on the CBP mound. He’s had one start against the Mets at home this year in which he mowed them down through 7 innings of 1-run ball.
Aaron Nola isn’t afraid of the moment. I don’t think Cristopher Sanchez is either, but October baseball is different. You need to play to Sanchez’s strengths and trust Nola as the veteran he is to win a road game.
3) Bryce Harper’s success against the Mets
Big surprise here: If Bryce Harper plays like Bryce Harper, the Phillies will win the series. Really bold take there. But it’s true. Bryce Harper went 14 for 47 (.298) against the Mets this season with 4 HRs, 9 RBIs, and a .638 slugging percentage.
Nobody in the world wants to win a championship for their city more than Bryce Harper does. He talked about it Thursday afternoon on the WIP Afternoon Show. We’ve seen what Bryce has done in the postseason the last two years and it has to start with him. He’s going to put one into the seats on Saturday.
“I can’t imagine playing anywhere else, it’s the greatest place to play…It’s the best fan base in all of sports. Everybody sees that and everybody is going to see that on Saturday when the bank turns red.”
— Bryce Harper on Philadelphia ❤️ pic.twitter.com/Hni5AVTM6u
— SPORTSRADIO 94WIP (@SportsRadioWIP) October 3, 2024
4) Edmundo Sosa’s role
You’re going to see more Edmundo Sosa than you think over the next week. Sosa has earned time against left-handed pitching, slashing .284/.347/.514 with an .861 OPS against southpaws in 2024.
David Peterson threw Thursday night, so it seems he’s out of the running to start Game 1. Reports are saying that Tylor Megill will start for the Mets in the series opener. Expect your normal RHP lineup out there Saturday, but be ready to see Edmundo Sosa against guys like Sean Manaea and Jose Quintana.
5) 7-3 in non-Taijuan starts against the Mets
Zack Wheeler only faced the Mets one time this season, but he was really good in that start, going seven-strong and allowing just one run.
Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were both solid against the Mets this year as well. Aaron Nola faced them twice: one start being a complete-game shutout, and another being four and a third while allowing six earned runs. I feel really good about where this pitching staff is at.
Kevin laid out the starting rotation’s NYM splits earlier on Friday.
6) The Phillies bullpen runs laps around the Mets bullpen
Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Carlos Estevez have combined for 10 innings of shutout ball against the Mets this year. I think people forget that the Phillies have 5 really good arms in their bullpen, and there’s a case for Jose Ruiz as the 6th go-to guy.
That last bullpen spot will be up for grabs. Maybe it’ll be Kolby Allard, maybe it’ll be Max Lazar. It doesn’t seem like Spencer Turnbull will be ready. I’d probably lean having one more righty in the bullpen.
Note: Matt Gelb of The Athletic mentioned that Max Lazar has a good chance to make the NLDS roster due to the Mets’ right-handed heavy lineup.
7) The importance of Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm was an MVP candidate through the first three months. He participated in the Home Run Derby, started in the All-Star Game, and will get a good amount of All-MLB votes.
It seems like Bohm will be in the cleanup spot this postseason, which is the right call. Nick Castellanos has thrived in the 5-hole in 2024. Bohm hit .289 against the Mets with 13 hits and 10 RBIs. He’ll have to drive in runs early. Bohm has finally started to realize that he doesn’t need to uppercut into oblivion anymore. Drive balls into the gap and this team will have success.
8) NLDS Roster Prediction
Starting Pitchers (4)
- Zack Wheeler
- Cristopher Sanchez
- Aaron Nola
- Ranger Suarez
Relief Pitchers (8)
- Jeff Hoffman
- Matt Strahm
- Carlos Estevez
- Orion Kerkering
- Jose Alvarado
- Jose Ruiz
- Tanner Banks
- Max Lazar
Catchers (2)
- JT Realmuto
- Garrett Stubbs
Infielders (6)
- Bryce Harper
- Bryson Stott
- Trea Turner
- Alec Bohm
- Edmundo Sosa
- Kody Clemens
Outfielders (5)
- Brandon Marsh
- Johan Rojas
- Nick Castellanos
- Austin Hays
- Weston Wilson
DH (1)
- Kyle Schwarber