Phillies Back to Slight Series Favorite After Leveling NLDS With Mets
The Philadelphia Phillies are back as the favorite on the NLDS series line following their walk-off Game 2 win.
The Phils are -142 on FanDuel and -135 on DraftKings to win the series. The Mets are +115/+120 and back in the underdog role as the series shifts to Citi Field.
Aaron Nola vs. Sean Manaea is the Game 3 matchup and it’s likely that we see Ranger Suarez and Jose Quintana in Game 4.
The starting pitching is where you can try to find the edge in the series as it stands right now because there hasn’t been a ton of bullpen usage.
All arms should be available for Game 3. David Peterson (a starter) and Reed Garrett of the Mets were the only relievers to pitch multiple frames in Games 1 and 2.
DraftKings is offering a handful of player series props that have been updated with the stats from the first two games.
For example, Mark Vientos is the current favorite to lead the series in hits at +105. He leads the series right now with five hits while Brandon Nimmo and Nick Castellanos have four hits each.
Castellanos carries the second-best odds to have the most hits at +245, Nimmo is +300 and no one else is under +2000. That’s because no one else in the series has more than two hits.
Now this is the postseason and anything can happen in a single game, but even one hit from one of the series leaders could make it difficult for someone like Trea Turner (+2200 to have the most hits) to reach the series lead.
With Pennsylvania online sports betting, I would look more into the most home runs in the series prop because there’s not a big difference between the current series leaders. Vientos has two long balls, but all of the usual home-run hitters on each side have one dinger each. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Pete Alonso could all come up with long balls in the coming days, no matter what the matchup is.
It’s hard to say a prop like this has “value”, but I would sprinkle a few dollars on Nick Castellanos to lead the series in home runs at +850. He already has one long ball in the series and Games 3 and 4 of last year’s NLDS is where he shined the most. He had a pair of two-homer games in those contests.
Castellanos has also been better against lefties all season. His OPS is over 100 points better against lefties and his batting average is 20 points better versus southpaws.
Anyone can step up in the postseason, but we’ve seen with the Phillies that the stars typically rise to the occasion and the Castellanos fits the billing of a star who can step up in the matchups present for Games 3 and 4.