The Philadelphia Phillies are a -185 favorite to win the NLDS matchup with the New York Mets.

The Phils are the second-largest series favorite across the ALDS and NLDS, behind only the Yankees.

You’ve probably already heard this by now, and will definitely hear it 10,000 more times during the series itself, but no top-two seed has advanced to the NLCS since the wild-card series was introduced in 2022.

The argument, and a strong one at that, can be made that the Phillies are best equipped among themselves, the Cleveland Guardians, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yankees to eliminate that trend because they got to the NLCS from the wild-card round in each of the last two years.

One thing is clear: The Phils have the pitching advantage in Saturday’s Game 1. That resonates with the odds as well since the Phillies are -192 on the money line.


Zack Wheeler gets the ball for the Phils, while the Mets will likely go with Tylor Megill because they used their top three starters to get past the Milwaukee Brewers. David Peterson also pitched the ninth inning in Thursday’s Game 3.

Wheeler’s only start against the Mets came on September 22nd. He allowed seven hits, but conceded only two earned runs and struck out eight over seven innings.

Wheeler hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in a home start since July 29th, and in the postseason, he’s held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in 10 of 11 appearances.

Megill hasn’t been confirmed as the Game 1 starter yet, but he makes the most sense for the Mets. He held the Phils to one earned run in four innings on 9/22, but he did concede eight hits in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader with the Braves before everything got chaotic.

The Phillies have the pitching advantage, especially in the bullpen since Edwin Diaz threw 39 pitches over 1.2 innings on Thursday, but the concern lies in the lineup.

A year ago, the four top-two seeds combined to score 10 runs in ALDS/NLDS Game 1s. Houston scored six of those runs and was the only home team to win Game 1.

However, that was only a 2023 trend. In 2022, all of the top-two seeds in each league scored at least four runs in Game 1 of the ALDS/NLDS.

The Phils had some mixed results against the Mets pitching staff in the regular season. They scored 46 runs in the seven wins against the Mets, but they managed just 23 runs in the six losses.

So maybe the formula is simple. Rely on strong pitching, tag the Mets hurlers and move on to the NLCS. Keep a look out for PA betting promos and NJ sportsbook promos if you’re thinking of betting this series, or the individual games.