The Top NFL Betting Trends Going into Week 5
Four weeks is a large enough sample size to finally develop some takes on the state of the 32 NFL teams and how to bet them.
For example, the Minnesota Vikings, the biggest surprise of September, are the only NFL team to go 4-0 against the spread.
Minnesota was undervalued on the point spread because of Sam Darnold starting at quarterback, but he’s proved to be a more-than-competent starter inside Kevin O’Connell’s system.
Eight other teams are 3-1 ATS, while 11 teams are 3-1 to the over.
Of course, the trends will become even more distinct as the season goes on and we should expect a larger disparity in ATS and over/under records, but for now, there’s enough information to apply to some of Week 5’s games.
Minnesota Puts Perfect ATS Record on Line in London Against Jets
Two significant trends are in play with the Vikings this week.
The Vikings are 4-0 ATS, but three of those covers (and outright victories) came as an underdog. They are a 2.5-point favorite in London against the New York Jets on Sunday morning.
Some of the London games have been tough watches in the past. I would chalk that up to the Jacksonville Jaguars being involved in a lot of those contests.
All of the last 10 victorious teams in London games eclipsed the 20-point mark. A year ago, two of the three London games had less than 40 points.
Minnesota is 3-1 to the under and the Jets are 2-1-1 to the under, so you have a bigger leg to stand on if you say the under will hit because of the two teams’ tendencies instead of just saying “Game’s in London, bet the Under.”
As for the spread, favorites are 17-16 against the spread in London games. The favorites are 21-11 outright, so at least in this situation, the Vikings money line is in play because of the short spread.
NFC West Overs on Fire
The entire NFC West is 3-1 to the over.
The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers play each other at Levi’s Stadium, while the Seattle Seahawks host the New York Giants and the Los Angeles Rams welcome the Green Bay Packers to Sofi Stadium.
Arizona’s sweet spot has been right under 50 points. The Cardinals hit on overs of 45.5, 47.5 and 48.5, but went well under the 50.5 set for its Week 3 loss to the Detroit Lions.
San Francisco hasn’t had an over/under close above 47 points yet this season, but that will change with the total for Sunday currently sitting at 50.
None of the totals set for Seattle games have closed above 47 as well, and that certainly won’t be the case in Week 5 against a Giants team that likely will not have Malik Nabers available. Seattle may have to hit the over 43.5 on its own, or at least put up 30 points for the over to have a chance.
The Rams are the most surprising over hitters of the bunch since they’ve played without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua for multiple weeks.
Sean McVay’s team faces another team in the 3-1 to the over bunch, which is another surprise since Green Bay didn’t have Jordan Love available for two games. The total in that game sits at 49 right now.
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