The projected scene for the TNF matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns is straight out of an AI-generated picture for an AFC North game.

The weather in Cleveland is going straight out suck. The winds are projected to be in the double digits and there’s the potential for snow lingering around Lake Erie as well.

So to absolutely no one’s surprise, the over/under currently sits at 36.5 with the Steelers as a 3.5-point favorite.

The Steelers and Browns don’t typically play high-scoring games in the first place. Only two of the last eight regular-season meetings between the teams saw both get over 20 points.

Five of Pittsburgh’s last seven AFC North games, including last week’s 18-16 win over the Baltimore Ravens, featured less than 30 points.


That’s the trend that supports the under. Pittsburgh’s been the more consistent franchise by a wide margin and there’s been too much turnover in Cleveland to really use year-by-year trends.

With that being said, I’d lean heavily into the running backs on Thursday night.

Najee Harris’ over/under sits at 72.5 rushing yards. He’s going up against a Cleveland defense that just allowed 214 rushing yards off a bye against the New Orleans Saints.

Harris has a touchdown in four of six career games against the Browns. He’s +105 to score, and I’d even look into the two touchdown prop of +650 because of how much the Steelers should run the ball.

Nick Chubb’s rushing-yard prop sits at over/under 52.5 yards. He hasn’t gone over that number since his return from an ACL injury, but he’s had at least 55 rushing yards in nine of his 10 career matchups with the Steelers.

There’s always a chance that the weather conditions are not as bad as forecasted, but if you do play passing and receiving props, I’d look into players used in short-range situations.

David Njoku has to be the target from Cleveland’s roster. He was thrown to at least seven times in each of his last five games. He’s tied with George Pickens for the highest reception prop on the board at over/under 4.5.

The one darkhorse to consider is Steelers tight end Darnell Washington, who has had more targets since Russell Wilson took over at quarterback. He’s had at least 25 receiving yards in three of the last four games and is a massive red-zone target. His props sit at over/under 1.5 receptions, 11.5 receiving yards, and, if you wanna get crazy, +700 to score.

This will be a big game for Pennsylvania sports betting. DraftKings is offering a Same Game Parlay boost for TNF. I’d go with Harris 60+ rush yards, Chubb 50+ rush yards, Njoku 4+ receptions as the safe bet for that. Washington could be a sneaky add with either his receptions or receiving yards. FanDuel is offering a profit boost on live bets, while Bet365 has a promo that gives you bonus bets back depending on how much you wager on TNF.