Saquon Barkley is the Third Favorite to Win NFL MVP - Can He Actually Do it?
Saquon Barkley’s absurd 255-yard, two-touchdown performance on Sunday night cratered his odds to win the NFL Most Valuable Player.
Barkley is now the clear third favorite behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson at PA sports betting apps and NJ betting apps. He is +500 at DraftKings and +650 on FanDuel.
Every expert on ESPN, NFL Network, etc will tell you that the MVP is a quarterback award. The last non-quarterback to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Barkley is ahead of the pace Peterson was on when he won the award 12 years ago. In fact, Barkley is more than 100 yards ahead of the MVP pace set by Peterson and he has three more touchdown at this stage of the season than the former Vikings running back.
Peterson finished the 2012 campaign with 2,097 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. He also added 217 receiving yards and one score through the air.
Barkley needs 705 rushing yards just to match Peterson’s total. He needs to average 117.5 yards per game over the next six contests for that to happen.
Here’s the good news: four of the Eagles’ last six opponents rank in the top five of rushing yards allowed. Barkley can run up the stats against Carolina, Washington, the New York Giants, and Dallas to counter whatever totals he’s held to by Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
All of those games should matter, which is an important point of context, since the Eagles will be chasing the Detroit Lions for home-field advantage in the NFC.
Barkley already put up 176 yards on his former team and 146 yards on the Commanders. The Cowboys held him to 66 yards, but he also didn’t play much of the fourth quarter in that game.
So at least from Barkley’s perspective he absolutely has the potential to clear past Peterson’s 2012 mark and make the MVP voters think long and hard about giving the honor to a non-quarterback.
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson make compelling cases as well, though.
Allen already beat the Kansas City Chiefs at home and he has a chance to knock off the Lions in Detroit in Week 15 in front of a national audience.
The Bills weren’t expected to be this good given their changes at wide receiver, but Allen has elevated the offense and there’s a chance Buffalo can clinch the AFC East in Week 13. Buffalo won’t take any games off, though, since they still need to make up a game on Kansas City in the AFC standings.
Jackson and the Ravens start an important two-game stretch on Monday against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night. They then face the Eagles on Sunday. Two big performances from Jackson could further elevate his status.
Jackson will likely become the season’s third 3,000-yard passer on Monday night and he needs two touchdown passes to tie Joe Burrow for the league lead on Monday.
Allen’s numbers are not through the roof, but what he’s done to carry the Bills to 9-2 is still very impressive.
At minimum, Barkley needs to be in the MVP conversation because of his remarkable statistical pace. He can’t have a bad game in the next six weeks in order to keep putting the pressure on Allen and Jackson.