Sixers a 3-Point Underdog for Joel Embiid's Season Debut, NBA Cup Opener Against Knicks
Joel Embiid makes his season debut for the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday night.
That’s what really matters to the fan base.
Sure, the NBA Cup is nice, but I think 10 out of 10 fans would want to win the NBA Finals rather than a midseason tournament. That doesn’t mean the Sixers won’t try to win, but Tuesday is all about building a foundation with Embiid and Paul George on the floor together.
Anyway, the Sixers are a three-point underdog against the New York Knicks. The Sixers and Knicks are in East Group A with the Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets, and Brooklyn Nets.
I think it’s easy to assume that whoever wins on Tuesday night will take the group title. The Magic don’t have Paolo Banchero right now and both the Nets and Hornets are more concerned with tanking for Cooper Flagg. The best second-place team in each conference makes the quarterfinals as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that team is the loser of the Sixers-Knicks game given how weak the rest of the group is.
We simply don’t know what the offense will look like in Game 1 with Embiid and George on the floor, but we do know exactly what the Knicks will do. Thibs will play six guys 35+ minutes and not bat an eyelash.
Embiid’s props are set at over/under 24.5 points and over/under 8.5 rebounds. On a normal night, I’d say hammer the over on those props because of what Embiid has done in his career against Karl-Anthony Towns.
Embiid scored 42, 34, 32 and 51 points in his last four head-to-head matchups with Towns. He averages 28.6 points and 9.7 rebounds in matchups with the new Knicks big man.
On the other side, Towns scored less than 20 points in five of the 11 head-t0-head battles with Embiid.
It’s easy to buy into those numbers because they’re so strong, but we just don’t know what Embiid will look like and how many minutes he’ll play.
I would be more confident in Paul George clearing his point prop of 17.5. He’s only reached 18 points once in four games, but he’s averaged 13.5 field-goal attempts. I don’t think that number changes much until Tyrese Maxey comes back and the three stars have to share the ball.
The other George angle I’d look at is the over on his assist prop of 4.5. He had nine assists against the Hornets on Sunday and is averaging 5.8 helpers per game so far in his Sixers career.
Kyle Lowry, Kelly Oubre, and Caleb Martin will make up the rest of the starting lineup. I’d look into Lowry assists or Oubre points from the non George & Embiid props. Martin’s stat line will diminish as Embiid controls the glass and he focuses more on defending.
As for the Knicks, Jalen Brunson’s points over of 25.5 seems like the best bet. He is averaging 26.8 points over his last five games and usually shows up in the big games.
FanDuel is offering a No Sweat Same Game Parlay for the two TNT games, the first of which is Sixers/Knicks. I’d look into Brunson 25+ points, George 20+ points as the anchors for that promotion. I’d use Josh Hart 6+ assists as the third leg to fulfill the promotion’s requirements. Hart is averaging 6.4 assists per game, and if Brunson is scoring, someone has to feed him the ball. If you’re looking at this game on PA sports betting apps or NJ betting apps, I’d be hesitant to use Embiid and other Sixers because of how the big man’s return could shake up the points distribution.
DraftKings has two profit boosts available for any NBA Cup game, BetMGM has an odds boost token available as well, and bet365 is offering bonus bets based on how much you wager on the NBA Cup on Tuesday.