Well, here we are again.

The Philadelphia 76ers are once again an underdog with Joel Embiid not expected to play.

Out of nowhere on Monday morning it was reported that Embiid is doubtful with an illness. Not questionable, not probable, nope just right to doubtful and headed toward yet another game absence.

So anyway, Paul George, Jared McCain and Co. are a five-point underdog against the Miami Heat and are +160 on the money line.

George and McCain will be responsible for carrying most of the offensive load. Caleb Martin and Kelly Oubre will chip in, but everyone expects George and McCain, whose point props sit at 21.5 and 20.5, to take a majority of the shots.


Betting the over on points props in Heat games can be tricky because Miami is typically known for its defense. The total sits at 212, which is the second-lowest total for a Sixers game this season.

The under hit in the game with the lowest total on Friday in Orlando, where the Sixers scored a season-low 86 points.

A similarly low-scoring game could be in the cards on Monday night because the Sixers won’t have Embiid, and on the other side, the Heat are expected to have Jimmy Butler back for the first time in a week.

It’s easy to expect Andre Drummond to be eaten alive by Bam Adebayo in the paint. Drummond hasn’t played more than 25 minutes in each of his  last five games, some of which have been with Embiid and some without.

The Sixers’ best path to victory might be to go smaller with Guershon Yabusele earning more minutes than usual in the paint. Yabusele played 31 and 24 minutes in the last two games.

Based off that information, I’d say Drummond under 11.5 rebounds is the best player prop you could make from Monday’s game.

George and Caleb Martin are both listed at over/under 5.5 rebounds. I’d look more into the over on those props than Drummond’s because I’d wager both of them are on the court for 30+ minutes.

McCain may be the better angle to take if you bet any Sixers point props. He attempted at least 16 shots in the last five games. He’s taken 10+ three-pointers in the last three games and made 15 threes in that span. McCain’s three-pointers line is over/under 3.5. You can also get him to have 3+ three-pointers at -175, or include that as part of a Same Game Parlay.

It’s a minimalist approach, but you can do George and Martin to have 4+ rebounds and McCain to make 3+ threes at plus money in a SGP. You can also add Adebayo at either 8+ or 10+ to increase the number.

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