The Philadelphia Eagles are a 7.5-point favorite against the Dallas Cowboys without Jalen Hurts.

That says a lot about where both teams stand at the moment.

Kenny Pickett will make his first Eagles start on Sunday, and you’d think the number would be a bit lower, but the Cowboys shut down CeeDee Lamb this week and he’s been a massive part of their offense.

The Birds were also a 7.5-point favorite against Dallas back in Week 10 and cleared that spread easily with a 34-6 victory.

That game, which was won without DeVonta Smith, featured two rushing touchdowns from Jalen Hurts and only 66 rushing yards out of Saquon Barkley.


A heavy dose of Barkley should be expected given the limitations the passing game has with Pickett under center.

The sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly because Barkley’s over/under sits at 113.5 rushing yards.

Dallas’ defense has allowed plenty of rushing yards to opponents, but it’s been worse at home. On the road, Dallas has held opponents to 100 rushing yards or less in five of seven games.

Of course, the variables change for this matchup because Barkley is expected to receive a heavy volume of touches. Barkley’s over/under for rushing attempts is 22.5.

Barkley’s had six games with 23 or more carries and seven games with more than 115 rushing yards, but the better way to approach Saquon on the prop market may be in receiving.

Pickett will probably be forced into a handful of checkdowns and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Dallas stacked the box to stop the run and force the Eagles backup to beat them.

Barkley’s receiving props sit at over/under 2.5 receptions and over/under 10.5 receiving yards. Barkley’s had at least 10 receiving yards on nine occasions this season, but he only has four games with three or more receptions.

I’d look into Kenneth Gainwell receiving props as well for the same reason, but those aren’t up just yet.

As for the wide outs, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith’s props are down compared to their usual totals at 66.5 and 45.5 yards.

Pickett only had 143 yards in relief of Hurts last week and who knows how much trust the Birds offensive staff will put in him to open things up to Brown and Smith. There might be a lot more short routes than anything.

The Cowboys’ pass-game situation is more dire without Lamb. He has 75 more targets, 47 more receptions and 730 more receiving yards than any other player on the Dallas roster.

Cooper Rush’s pass-yard prop sits at over/under 189.5, and while it is low, it’s worth taking the under because of how limited the Dallas pass game could be.

All of these factors contribute to the over/under sitting at 38 across NJ betting apps and PA sports betting apps. It’s the lowest total for both teams in any game this season. Dallas is 10-5 to the over, but that trend isn’t really applicable to Sunday because of all the absences.

The Eagles are 1-3 against the spread as a favorite of a touchdown or more, while the Cowboys are 1-3 ATS as an underdog of over seven points. Something has to give with those trends.

While there are some trends to rely on, we really don’t know how ugly, or competent, both offenses will look because of how important Hurts and Lamb are to each team.