A Look into the Best Player Props for NFL Wild Card Weekend
The player prop angle will be one of the most popular ways to bet NFL Wild Card weekend .
A handful of assorted promotions across the sportsbooks have already been released, and plenty will be announced in the coming days.
Here’s a guide to the best props to take in the five non-Eagles playoff games. I’ll have a detailed look into Packers-Eagles on Friday.
Chargers at Texans
Look, there’s a good chance this game just flat out stinks.
The Chargers play incredible defense and the Texans are trending in the wrong direction.
The two players you’re most likely to bet, Nico Collins and Ladd McConkey, have absurdly high receiving yard props set at over/under 87.5 and 73.5.
Houston is likely going to have to throw the ball a lot since the Chargers have held three of their last five opponents under 100 rushing yards.
The Chargers will probably be more balanced, because well, Houston’s defense hasn’t been great. It finished the season with three straight 300+ total yard concessions.
Prop to Take: Dalton Schultz Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Someone other than Collins has to catch passes from C.J. Stroud, and if the Chargers pass rush is on point, the Texans need a solid check-down option. Schultz had 28 targets in December and went over this line in both Houston playoff games last season.
Touchdown Scorer: Derius Davis
If you’re opting into DraftKings’ King of the End Zone promotion, Davis is worth a look.
This is one of the many NJ sportsbook promos and PA betting promos available this weekend, will award a share of bonus bets if you pick the player with the longest touchdown on each day.
Davis is the Chargers’ return man and he’s been used a lot more in the last month in and around the red zone. You need to pick someone different for the promo because everyone will be on Collins, Derrick Henry and others on Saturday, so why not take the speedster, who by the way, has a touchdown in two of his last three games.
Steelers at Ravens
Baltimore’s 34-17 walloping of Pittsburgh on December 21st is fresh in everyone’s minds.
Derrick Henry torched the Steelers defense for 162 yards on 24 carries, and both of Baltimore’s tight ends and Rashod Bateman caught touchdown passes from Lamar Jackson.
Henry’s rushing-yard prop sits at over/under 99.5. He has three 100-yard postseason games, but in the four others he failed to reach the 70-yard mark.
I’d say this is the better game to attack with your FanDuel No Sweat Same Game Parlay for Saturday, and while Henry will be a focal point of many bets, I think you can go in a different direction with the No Sweat SGP, which FD is offering for every day of Wild Card weekend.
I would look into a quartet of 25+ receiving-yard props for the SGP:
Props to Take: Pat Freiermuth/Jaylen Warren/Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely 25+ receiving yards (+427, FD)
Warren had 27 & 44 receiving yards versus Baltimore in the regular season. He’s the check down option if Russell Wilson can’t find George Pickens and/or faces a heavy pass rush.
Freiermuth had 19 targets in the last two weeks and has developed a strong connection with Wilson. He’s the No. 2 passing option behind Pickens right now.
Andrews and Likely each eclipsed the 25-yard mark in December against Pittsburgh, and if Zay Flowers is hampered by his injury, they will have increased roles in the passing game.
Touchdown Scorer: Derrick Henry
Sometimes you just have to keep it simple, stupid.
As long as Henry is priced below -200, which he is at every book as of writing this on Wednesday, I’d take him.
Broncos at Bills
The Broncos won’t win, but they might be the peskiest of all the large underdogs.
If Denver is competitive, though, it will have to succeed through the air.
The Broncos aren’t sure who their feature back is and there’s a much more defined look in the passing game with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. for big plays and DeVaughn Vele on shorter routes.
The Bills love to find Khalil Shakir through the air and they will try to get James Cook going on the ground.
Keep in mind that both quarterbacks love to take off as well, and hell, with the way Denver rotates its running backs, Nix could be its leading rusher.
Prop To Take: Bo Nix Over 24.5 Rushing Yards
Six of Nix’s eight-highest rushing-yard totals have come on the road. He had more than 25 rushing yards in all of those performances.
Touchdown Scorer: Marvin Mims Jr.
Mims should be the No. 1 option for the King of the End Zone promo on Sunday.
First of all, he’s got two touchdowns in each of the last two games.
But really the logic here is that Mims is Denver’s deep-play threat, and similar to Davis with the Chargers, he can breeze past defenders if Nix connects with him perfectly.
Commanders at Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield threw for 289 yards and went 24-for-30 against Washington in Week 1.
The Commanders have allowed over 300 total yards in eight of their last 10 games and four of their five worst pass-yard concessions came on the road.
Washington will have to win the game through the air. Tampa Bay’s held its last eight opponents under 100 rushing yards. Keep that in mind for Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson rushing props.
Prop to Take: Jalen McMillan Over 50.5 Receiving Yards
Sure, you could pick Mike Evans to have a big day against the Washington passing defense, but McMillan checks in at a more palatable number, and one that he’s consistently hit in the second half of the regular season.
McMillan has a five-game run of at least 50 receiving yards and a touchdown. He’s the No. 2 passing option behind Evans with Cade Otton and Chris Godwin out.
Touchdown Scorer: Zach Ertz
Ertz has a touchdown in five of his last seven games.
I think Daniels will have a heavy reliance on the veteran tight end in a game where Tampa’s pass rush could wreak havoc.
Vikings at Rams
The Rams won the regular-season meeting with the Vikings back in October.
One thing sticks out the most on the box score: both Justin Jefferson and Puka Nacua turned in 100-yard performances.
Cooper Kupp was the only other wide receiver with more than 50 yards in the game, and it’s worth noting Demarcus Robinson scored twice. Tyler Higbee is back for the Rams now and he could be worth a look outside of the wide outs if Matthew Stafford opens up the passing game.
T.J. Hockenson was still on the road to recovery in October, too, so he did not play in that game. He should get a decent amount of targets from Sam Darnold.
Props To Take: Cooper Kupp Over 46.5 Receiving Yards
It hasn’t been Kupp’s best season, but the Rams are going to need a second option to Nacua in the passing game.
Kupp’s had at least 60 receiving yards in six of his seven career playoff games, and to be honest, he’s kind of due for a big game.
Touchdown Scorer: Kyren Williams
Jefferson and Nacua didn’t score on October 24th, but Williams did.
The Rams running back scored in five of his last six regular-season games, and while it’s a chalky pick, it’s an easy one to take if the Rams get in the red zone a lot.