2025 Super Bowl Picks: The Eight Best Bets to Make as an Eagles Fan

One of the unique things about the Super Bowl is that the betting and trading options are so widespread that it sometimes becomes hard to narrow the focus. You can scroll for days before putting anything in the bet slip.

Where do you place your units? Props? Spreads? Parlays? Novelty items?

Let’s keep it simple and look at eight bets I’ve pulled from BetMGM and ESPN Bet:

1) Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown scorer: -115 (BetMGM)

A wise man once said that if it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it. He was talking about Jalen Hurts ATS, which has been money more often than not for almost three full seasons now. It has hit 12 times in 20 games this year, regular season + post, which is a 60% cash rate. Hurts also ran for five touchdowns against the Chiefs in the 2023 road game and Super Bowl 57, so the recent history is on our side.

2) team to score the longest field goal: KC Chiefs, -140 (ESPN Bet)

While Harrison Butker and Jake Elliott have both underwhelmed from distance this season, Elliott has been more erratic. While this game is played indoors on turf, the prevailing thought is that the Eagles remain a bit wary of Elliott’s struggles from 50+. When you combine that with the fact that the Birds use the Brotherly Shove to convert on 3rd and short and 4th and short on the edge of field goal range, the likelihood they attempt anything from 45+ seems less likely than Kansas City sending Butker out there.

3) total match punts: under 6.5 at -120 (ESPN Bet)

The AFC Championship Game only had four punts while the NFC Championship Game had three. All four teams in those games were known for their offensive prowess and tendency to go on fourth down, rather than kick.

Similarly, the Chiefs/Eagles Super Bowl only had four total punts while Eagles were 2-2 on fourth down. So we’ll consider the punt-heavy 2023 regular season game as the statistical outlier and play the under this time.

4) player to record the longest reception: A.J. Brown +300 (ESPN Bet)

At +300, this is a half unit or three-quarter unit play.

The thinking is this:

While a number of receivers on both teams are liable to break a big one with yards after the catch, A.J. Brown always gets a go ball or two in every Eagles game. So we’re playing the air yards angle here, hoping for a scenario or two where the Birds get a 1v1 on the outside and throw it up there for Brown to go grab.

In Super Bowl 57, both Brown and DeVonta Smith had catches of 45 yards, and in six games this season Brown caught a pass of 30+ yards. That’s WITH Saquon Barkley running for 2,000 over 16 regular season matchups.

5) total Eagles players to record a rushing attempt: under 3.5, -160 (ESPN Bet)

Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley are players one and two. Kenny Gainwell will get a couple of carries while Barkley gets a breather. The question is whether or not the Eagles go deeper into the playbook or keep it simple. Twice in the NFC Championship Game they ran the Tavon Austin pop-pass for DeVonta Smith, which we had not seen all year. But they are not an end-around team and they don’t run a lot of gadget plays. Ainias Smith finished the regular season with two runs and Jahan Dotson had one. A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert had zero rushing attempts.

The other thing to consider is an Eagles blowout, which would mean rushing attempts from Barkley, Hurts, Gainwell, and Will Shipley. That seems highly doubtful in the Super Bowl, so we’ll play the -160 and hope for no gadgety play calls. For what it’s worth, the only reason this bet hit the over in SB57 is because Boston Scott got three carries behind Gainwell and the ineffective Miles Sanders.

6) longest QB rush: over 16.5 yards at -115 (ESPN Bet)

Hurts has hit this over in four of his last six games while Mahomes has come awfully close. The latter killed the Eagles with a 26-yard scramble in Super Bowl 57 and knowing that the Birds like to play with two safeties and keep things in front of them, we’re playing the over at -115, thinking that if Hurts doesn’t get there, Mahomes might.

7) Jalen Hurts over 9.5 rushing attempts: +105 (BetMGM)

This number went over nine times in 2024 and it also went over against the Chiefs in 2023 and also in Super Bowl 57. With Steve Spagnuolo blitzing at a high rate, inevitably there will be instances of Hurts escaping and scrambling. And keep in mind that every tush push is a rushing attempt, so we’re taking the over at plus odds.

8) first TD scorer: Jalen Hurts or Saquon Barkley: +210 (BetMGM)

This one is purely based off of play patterns. Barkley scored the first TD against the Commanders and Hurts scored the first TD against the Rams. One of those was a first-drive score and the other was a hold-and-respond situation.

If the Eagles lose the toss, and start with possession, you get both rushing threats at a combined +210 to score a TD. If the Eagles win the toss and defer, the defense typically starts slow and holds to field goals, which keeps the bet alive into the first Philly possession.

Bonus trade –

9) More people to watch the game in 2025 than in 2024: 67% YES at Kalshi

At the Kalshi prediction market, you can trade on the possibility that TV ratings will go up or down this year.

This brings the “Chiefs fatigue” concept into play. Kansas City has appeared in five of the last six Super Bowls and only once has the game had fewer than 100 million viewers. 2024 had about 123 million viewers and 2023 had 115 million, so we’ll take the 67% prediction that rabid Eagles viewership and the heightened activity from a large east coast market negates whatever perceived decline comes from same team weariness. We’ll go YES for the game to crest 123 million.