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Phillies the Slightest of Favorites Over Mets for NLDS Game 3
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Philadelphia Phillies are the very slightest of favorites across the major sportsbooks for NLDS Game 3 against the New York Mets.
The Phils are anywhere from -110 to -115 behind Aaron Nola to take the series lead at Citi Field. Tuesday’s over/under is set at seven for the pitching battle between Nola and Sean Manaea. Games 1 and 2 went over the total .
Nola’s postseason numbers in the early rounds are far better than the recent outings from the NLCS and World Series.
He allowed two earned runs or fewer in all of his four starts in the wild-card round and NLDS. Three of those outings featured six or more innings without conceding an earned run, but only one of them came on the road. He allowed four hits in 6.2 shutout innings in the 2022 wild-card round in St. Louis.
I wouldn’t look too much into Nola’s home/road splits in the NLDS because he’s typically been the No. 2 option behind Zack Wheeler. He was only moved to Game 3 this year because Cristopher Sanchez’s home/road splits are so distinct.
The best start of Nola’s 2024 regular season came at Citi Field. He pitched a complete game shutout with eight strikeouts on May 14th. His other start against the Mets on September 13th did not go as well, but he did have seven strikeouts during his six-run concession.
Compared to Manaea, Nola looks like one of the best postseason pitchers in baseball history.
Manaea has not made it past the fifth inning in four playoff starts for three different franchises. The Phillies tagged him for five earned runs on four hits in Game 4 of the 2022 NLCS.
Manaea owns a 10.66 postseason ERA. He allowed at least four hits in every playoff outing, conceded four or more earned runs three times and never made it over five strikeouts.
The Mets southpaw had two solid starts against the Phillies in the regular season, but he also was rocked for six earned runs on seven hits on June 8th.
Manaea’s postseason history suggests the over on hits allowed prop of 4.5 is in play, and it sits at plus money on DraftKings. If online sports betting in NJ, I’d also look into the under on his outs recorded prop of 15.5 because he’s gone under that number in every postseason appearance.
As for Nola, his props are set at over/under 5.5 strikeouts, over/under 16.5 outs and over/under 4.5 hits allowed.
Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, and Starling Marte all have more than 10 hits in their careers against Nola, while Francisco Lindor has seven hits as part of his .212 batting average versus Nola.
There’s more familiarity inside the Mets lineup with Nola because he’s been in Philly longer than Manaea’s been with the New York.
However, it’s worth noting that Nick Castellanos has owned Manaea throughout their careers. He has three homers, a double, and two singles in 16 plate appearances.
In fact, four players on Tuesday’s NLDS slate have three or more homers against the starting pitcher. Alonso, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Shohei Ohtani are the other three.
Castellanos has the highest odds to hit a home run among the Phillies’ regular long-ball hitters. I would look into his props first and then into Trea Turner, who is 5-for-16 with a home run in his career against Manaea.
I would look into some type of hit or total bases SGP with Turner and Castellanos. If you want add Mets players, I’d would put Nimmo and Alonso in that because there’s a chance Marte only gets three at-bats.
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Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.