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March Madness: The Cinderellas to Trust in the NCAA Tournament
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Everyone is going to come to the water cooler, or the Facebook or Twitter comments section with their favorite Cinderella pick for the NCAA tournament.
A No. 12 seed has to beat a No. 5 seed, right?
That’s the trendy upset that everyone wants to bring up, but what about a No. 13 seed, or hell, a No. 16 seed following in FDU or UMBC’s footsteps?
The one thing to note for this year’s bracket is that a majority of the mid-major teams listed as No.12-16 seeds aren’t just flukes. A lot of them were regular-season and conference tournament champions, so there’s more depth on the list of potential Cinderellas than in previous seasons.
Top Cinderellas to Watch
the San Diego State/North Carolina Winner
One of the most notable NCAA tournament trends is that a First Four winner has won at least one more game in the NCAA tournament in all but one year since the First Four was introduced in 2011.
VCU in 2011 and UCLA in 2021 made Final Four runs after starting in Dayton and FDU won two games as a 16 seed in 2023.
I think the winner of Tuesday’s San Diego State/North Carolina game is the team to fit that trend in 2025.
San Diego State’s won seven NCAA tournament games in the last two years. The Aztecs have bucked the trend that the Mountain West sucks in March (the rest of the conference has struggled).
Carolina’s been up and down through the season, but it might use all the critics who said it doesn’t belong as motivation, or it might fall apart because it snuck into the field.
Anyway, the SDSU/UNC winner faces Ole Miss. The Rebels lost five of their last eight games, and it’s worth noting the Aztecs or Tar Heels get an extra day of rest from Tuesday to Friday, which isn’t typical for First Four winners.
Iowa State is the No. 3 seed in the South Region and has dealt with injuries for the last month. The Cyclones are already down Keshon Gilbert for the tournament.
For PA sports betting, I’d lean San Diego State to make the push into the Sweet 16 because of its top-20 defense and the inconsistencies of the teams it might play. The Aztecs have the better betting value as well. They are +950 on DraftKings and +1800 on FanDuel to reach the Sweet 16.
Lipscomb
I’m going to pick on Iowa State for a minute.
The Cyclones aren’t at full strength and finished 3-4 with two notable losses to BYU in which they conceded 96 and 88 points.
Lipscomb regularly scored in the 80s and 90s in the Atlantic Sun and ranks in the top 50 in a majority of KenPom offensive metrics.
The Bisons absolutely will not be a popular upset pick, but the matchup profile suggests they have a chance to beat Iowa State, and after that, who knows? Lipscomb is +750 on the money line to beat ISU.
High Point
Personally, I think the 13 seeds have a better shot of winning than the 12 seeds this year.
High Point comes into the Big Dance with the nation’s second-longest winning streak of 14 games.
Purdue has three wins since February 11th and two of them came against USC and Rutgers, who finished in the bottom half of the Big Ten.
Just a reminder: Before Purdue made the national championship with Zach Edey last season, Matt Painter lost to a 13 seed, 15 seed and 16 seed in consecutive years. The Boilermakers have a track record.
High Point is anywhere from +270 to +300 to beat Purdue.
Both Clemson and McNeese could lose their coaches after the Big Dance, so that could make them vulnerable against a red-hot High Point team. High Point is +1200 to reach the Sweet 16.
UC San Diego
Okay, here’s your 12 seed.
UC San Diego is in the NCAA tournament for the first time and probably would’ve gotten in as an at-large had it not won the Big West tournament.
Michigan is vulnerable because of its turnover issues. The Wolverines have a ton of variance in their performance, which is exactly what you don’t want in a national title contender.
The Wolverines won the Big Ten tournament, but before that, they lost four of six, and oh yeah the spread on this game is only 2.5 points.
UC San Diego is 36th on KenPom and has the nation’s longest winning streak of 15 games, so of course, they will be popular, but sometimes popular is good.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.