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March Madness: The Odds and Trends for the First Four

By Joe Tansey

Published: Mar 18th, 2025 · 2:00 PM EDT

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The appetizer to the real NCAA tournament begins on Tuesday.

There are two First Four games in Dayton tonight and Wednesday.

Two of the games feature No. 16 seeds that, honestly, not a lot of people know about, but North Carolina plays on opening night, so that’s the real draw.

With four games to wager on there are plenty of ways to tackle each contest, so here’s a look at the notable trends for the First Four participants.

 

No. 16 Saint Francis vs. No. 16 Alabama State (-3.5) (O/U: 138.5)

There’s a reason why both of these teams are in the First Four.

Saint Francis only had five wins before January, three of which were against Penn State Schuykill, Penn State Shenango, and Franciscan.

The Red Flash won eight of their last 10 and took the NEC tournament. They are 17-13 ATS, but the more striking trend is an 8-2 run to the over in the last 10.

Alabama State is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 games. The SWAC winner is 9-1 to the under in its last 10 and it is 3-8 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or higher.

The First Four games involving No. 16 seeds have been relatively high scoring over the last three years. Each No. 16 seed to win in the First Four during that span scored at least 71 points and five of them eclipsed the 75-point mark.

 

No. 11 North Carolina (-4.5) vs. No. 11 San Diego State (O/U: 142.5)

North Carolina is 4-5 ATS as a favorite between four and nine points.

San Diego State has only been an underdog of four or more points on four occasions this season. The Aztecs are 2-2 ATS in those games, but two of them were double-digit spreads against Houston and Gonzaga.

The Aztecs have a top-20 defense, but they are 5-2 to the over in their last seven games. However, the Aztecs are 3-5 to the over when the total closed at 142 or higher.

North Carolina has only had one game close below 142 points this season. The Tar Heels play at the 34th-fastest tempo and have a top-100 offense.

The picks seem pretty simple for this one: if you like the Aztecs, the under is in play, but if you prefer the Heels, there’s a good chance the over hits.

DraftKings is offering a No Sweat parlay or SGP for every day of the tournament. If you want to keep it to this game, you can pair UNC and the over, or SDSU and the under. Bet365 also has a 30 percent SGP boost for the First Four

FanDuel has a 25 percent profit boost on any Tuesday CBB wager and BetMGM has an odds boost token available. You’ll find good promotions on New Jersey sports betting apps and PA sports betting apps throughout the tournament.

Personally, I’m using my boost on San Diego State. I think the Aztecs are more sound defensively, and plus, this is a team with seven NCAA tournament wins in the last two years.

 

No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s vs. No. 16 American (-2.5) (O/U: 129.5)

American is 5-7 ATS in its last 12 games, while Mount St. Mary’s is on a six-game covering streak.

Mount St. Mary’s is 21-11-1 ATS and cashed outright as an underdog in four of its last six games. The Mountaineers have won outright nine times as a dog this season.

The total of 129.5 is the fourth-lowest over/under set for both American and Mount St. Mary’s. American ranks 349th in tempo, but the Eagles got over 70 points in each of their three Patriot League tournament games.

Neither team is above .500 to the over, so that’s one of the factors contributing to the low total.

 

No. 11 Xavier (-2.5) vs. No. 11 Texas (O/U: 149.5)

Texas is one of the best teams to the over in Division 1.

The Longhorns are 21-11-2 to the over and they are 8-4-1 to the over when the total closed at 149.5 or higher.

Xavier is 10-4 to the under when the total closed at 149 or higher.

The Musketeers are the hotter team. They finished the Big East regular season on a seven-game winning streak. Texas won two games at the SEC tournament, but went 5-8 straight up after February 1.