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Zack Wheeler, Phillies Favored on Opening Day Against Nationals
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Welcome back, baseball!
I’ll be honest, Opening Day should wait until April, but now that it’s here I can’t wait for the first pitch.
The Phillies are, unsurprisingly, a -155 moneyline favorite behind Zack Wheeler on Thursday against MacKenzie Gore and the Nationals.
The over/under is only seven and the Phillies team total sits at over/under 3.5.
If you know anything about the Phillies and their history against Gore, the team total is going to be a lot of people’s favorite bet.
Trea Turner has a .353 average in 17 at-bats, Nick Castellanos has two home runs and a .350 AVG in 20 ABs, and J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm have averages over .250, all against Gore.
Gore was a coveted pitching prospect that came over in the Juan Soto deal with the Padres and he had mixed results against the Phils last year.
The Nationals’ southpaw gave up 20 hits and nine earned runs in 23.2 innings. Those numbers are a bit inflated by a five-run, nine-hit concession in August in Philly.
So, yes, the Phils lineup has a great history vs. Gore, but he is cleaning up his errors and can’t immediately be placed on the autofade list.
That’s not to say Gore will pitch a perfect game, but I wouldn’t slam Phillies’ batter props just because of the past history.
Who knows if Spring Training stats translate to a hot start, but Alec Bohm hit .370 with 17 hits and three home runs in Florida. Between that and his tendency to hit lefties better, he might be the best Phillies player to target.
The Nats lineup has the most striking batter-versus-pitcher history since Josh Bell has four homers, nine RBI and a .316 batting average in his career against Wheeler.
Most of the Washington order is the same from last season. Wheeler went at least six innings in all of his starts against the Nats. He had 23 strikeouts across those games and at least six punchouts in all three outings.
I’m always hesitant to bet pitcher props on Opening Day because not everyone is ramped up yet, but if you take a pitcher prop, I’d look at Wheeler’s outs, which is listed at over/under 17.5.
Wheeler went six innings in his Opening Day start last year and I think the over is attainable more than the over on his strikeout prop of 6.5. The Nats weren’t a high strikeout team last year.
FanDuel has a No Sweat Same Game Parlay available for SGPs of 3+ legs or longer at +400. I would go with Bohm and Turner 2+ total bases and Phillies moneyline to get you to +415.
DraftKings is offering a No Sweat token on home runs bets. I’d target Bohm or Turner in this spot. (You can also get the DraftKings casino promo code here).
BetMGM is also offering a No Sweat token for Opening Day, ESPNBet has a boost for either Kyle Schwarber or Bryce Harper to hit a home run at +225 and bet365 has a Safety Net available for up to $10 in bonus bets.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.