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Phillies are Heavy Favorite in Home Opener Against Rockies
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phils are back in town and it’s hittin’ weather.
It’s a beautiful day, the wind is expected to be blowing out at Citizens Bank Park and the Phils traditionally rock Rockies starter German Marquez.
So of course it makes sense that the Phillies are -285 on the money line for Monday’s home opener.
Cristopher Sanchez has a significant edge over Marquez in the pitching matchup, especially at home, and the perfect recipe for a Schwarbomb is on the table. Schwarber owns a .429 batting average in 14 at-bats against Marquez. He has multiple home runs against the Colorado right-hander.
Marquez is back from a season-long injury absence. He’s given up more than 20 home runs in every season he’s pitched with at least 25 appearances.
Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos each have a home run and better than .400 batting average against Marquez, while Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto each have averages over .300 in 15+ at bats.
There are two ways to approach this: bet the player props, or take the Phillies team total, which sits at over/under 4.5 runs.
The Phils went over that mark twice in Washington and they will be hitting in far more favorable conditions on Monday,
DraftKings has a No Sweat offer for home run props. Schwarber is the best pick for the matchup itself at +260, but Harper (+330), Castellanos (+600), and Bohm (+700) have longer odds on DK.
The other approach is to add the Phillies run line or Sanchez props to a Same Game Parlay.
Sanchez’s over/under for strikeouts is 5.5.
All three of Tampa Bay’s starters had at least seven strikeouts against the Rockies last weekend and Sanchez is typically stronger at home.
A year ago, Sanchez had a 2.21 home ERA and almost doubled his strikeout total inside CBP compared to his road starts.
Sanchez received a ton of praise for his Spring Training performance and the circumstances are ideal for him to start the season on a high note.
As for other PA betting promos and NJ sportsbook promos, FanDuel has a SGP parlay boost available for Monday’s MLB games.
The Phillies team total over 4.5, Sanchez over 5.5 strikeouts, Schwarber 2+ total bases and the Phillies run line gets you to +455 before any boosts are applied.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.