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Behind Cristopher Sanchez, Streaking Phillies a -230 Favorite Against Nationals
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Here’s hoping the Phillies play a less chaotic game than Tuesday’s series opener against the Washington Nationals.
On paper, the Phils should (should being the operative word) cruise to another home win behind Cristopher Sanchez.
After all, the Fightins are a -230 favorite on the moneyline and the run line price sits at -108. The over/under is set at 7.5 because of Sanchez’s home numbers.
Sanchez’s most stunning split this season is his 28 strikeouts at home compared to five away from Citizens Bank Park.
Opponents are only hitting .203 against the southpaw, which is in line with last season’s numbers, but he has allowed more earned runs and conceded all four of his home runs at home. He’s also pitched 10 more innings at home, so take that into account as well.
Forgetting the splits for a second, I think we’re all curious to see how Sanchez throws after leaving his last outing with forearm tightness. That’s not an issue to take lightly.
The bigger trend at play is the last nine games at Citizens Bank Park have had at least eight runs, which puts the over within reach on Wednesday.
As noted Tuesday, Washington ranks in the bottom five of team ERA and all hell broke loose once MacKenzie Gore exited the game. You can say the same about the Phils once Zack Wheeler departed too, but overall, it’s the Nationals bullpen that will aid the over more.
That could be the case again on Wednesday with Sanchez on the hill and Jake Irvin throwing for the Nats. Irvin’s allowed three earned runs over his last three appearances.
If anything, I think there’s a live betting element to take advantage of here because of how strong both starters have been and what the bullpens looked like during the carnage of the final three innings on Tuesday.
DraftKings has two live profit boosts for NJ betting apps and PA sports betting apps to use on Wednesday’s MLB action. FanDuel has a 30 percent boost for MLB live bets as well. I’d save these for around the third or fourth innings if the total dips low so you can get the bets in before the third turn around the order against the starters.
BetMGM has an odds boost token for any yes/run first inning or no/run first inning bets. I know I just said everything about hunting the live over, but it’s notable that a run has been scored by either the Phils or their opponent in the first inning in four of Sanchez’s five appearances.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.