Phillies

There’s Good Reason for the Phillies to Be Favored on Wednesday, Even With Recently-Shaky Jesus Luzardo On the Mound

By Joe Tansey

Published: Jul 9th, 2025 · 1:05 PM EDT

---

The Phillies’ current situation doesn’t exactly scream “They Should Be Favored” on Wednesday afternoon against the Giants.

However, I’d argue that even with Jesus Luzardo’s struggles, the Phils absolutely deserve that tag with Justin Verlander starting for San Francisco.

Verlander is a shell of himself and just holding on right now. He’s 0-6 with a 4.84 ERA, allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts, and only went three innings in his last outing against the Athletics.

And yes, even though the Phillies have scored four runs over two games in San Francisco, it’s easy to fade the former Cy Young winner.

Verlander’s outs recorded prop sits at over/under 15.5. He’s pitched into the sixth inning three times in his last eight starts. The under sits at -140, but the juice is worth the squeeze.

Additionally, the Giants are 2-6 outright in the last eight Verlander starts.

I would even go as far to say use bet365’s Instant Payout if your team goes up by 5 promotion on the Phillies today.

Verlander was just on the losing end of an 11-2 game, and if the Phils bats show up on Wednesday, there’s a good chance they can break it open in the early stages.

Look, I get why there would be hesitation in backing Luzardo at the moment, but he’s at least displayed some flashes over the last six weeks that he can still pitch at a high level.

Luzardo’s last start against Cincinnati was brutal, but he did allow two earned runs or fewer in three of the four starts before the blow-up on the Fourth of July. There’s more of a sample size there to trust than whatever slop Verlander’s been stuck in recently.

With NJ betting apps, I’d use BetMGM’s Any Sport Odds Boost Token on the Phillies money line, which currently sits at -130.

There aren’t many great player prop angles. Verlander’s conceded equally to lefties and righties and only Bryce Harper’s .400 average in 10 at-bats stands out among the batter-versus-pitcher history because Verlander spent so much time in the American League.

The Dumb Stats Department (TM) suggests Kyle Schwarber home run (He is one of 12 players with 10+ home runs in day games) and Trea Turner over 1.5 total bases. He’s got seven hits in the last week and he’s the Phillies’ best hitter against right-handed pitching.